30/09/2026
🌡️🌧️ MINDANAO CLIMATE OUTLOOK: OCTOBER 2026–MARCH 2027
Unsa kaha ang dagan sa atong panahon sa umaabot nga mga bulan?
As we move toward the latter part of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027, prevailing El Niño conditions may continue to influence climate patterns across Mindanao.
📉 Rainfall: Based on the latest outlook, many areas of Mindanao are expected to experience below-normal rainfall from October to December 2026. Starting in January 2027, the rainfall deficit is projected to become more pronounced, with way below-normal rainfall—defined as 40% or less of the usual rainfall amount for the month—becoming more widespread from January to March 2027.
More dry days:
Along with reduced rainfall, the number of dry days—defined as days with less than 1 mm of rainfall—may also increase, particularly in several areas during the first quarter of 2027. This means longer periods with little to no rainfall may become more frequent.
⚠️ Dry Conditions, Dry Spells, and Drought:
The outlook indicates that dry conditions and dry spells may become more frequent and affect more areas, particularly from December 2026 onward. These conditions are expected to become more widespread from January to March 2027. By March, drought conditions are also projected in several areas of Mindanao.
🌧️ The drought indicated here refers to meteorological drought, which is characterized by prolonged below-normal rainfall or rainfall deficiency. It focuses on the rainfall conditions of an area and should not be interpreted directly as an assessment of soil moisture, crop conditions, or groundwater levels.
🌡️ Temperature:
In addition to the expected rainfall deficits, warmer-than-usual temperatures are projected across most areas of Mindanao from October 2026 to March 2027, ranging from slightly warmer to warmer-than-usual conditions.
Higher temperatures can lead to faster evaporation of soil moisture, which may further contribute to dry conditions. They can also increase heat stress among people, livestock, and crops, especially when combined with prolonged periods of below-normal rainfall.
🌀 Tropical cyclones:
For October 2026 to March 2027, around 3–7 tropical cyclones are expected. The number of tropical cyclones generally decreases toward the early months of 2027. However, the climatological tracks indicate that tropical cyclone activity may shift farther southward during the latter part of 2026 and early 2027. Therefore, Mindanao may still experience tropical cyclone impacts even as fewer systems are expected overall.
So, unsa man ang bigger picture?
The coming months may bring less rainfall, more dry days, warmer-than-average conditions in some areas, and an increasing possibility of dry conditions, dry spells, and drought, particularly during the first quarter of 2027.
But remember: El Niño does not mean nga wala na gyuy ulan. Weather systems such as tropical cyclones, shear lines, easterlies, ITCZ, localized thunderstorms, and LPAs can still bring rainfall to different parts of Mindanao.
📌 Pahimangno: Ang climate outlook is a guide to the possible conditions in the coming months. Padayon sa pagsubay sa updated DOST-PAGASA forecasts, advisories, and climate information to stay informed and prepare for possible impacts.
