07/22/2024
What to expect in the next week. A quick update from:
Jeff Jackson
Well, holy smokes.
I was in a Zoom meeting with the president a week ago with a few dozen members of Congress. The purpose was to discuss the viability of his campaign, and he took a lot of hard questions.
But at no point did he seem like he was dropping out. I figured if he changed course, I’d hear some kind of murmur before the announcement.
That’s not what happened. I found out the same time all of you did.
The shock was followed by my phone exploding with calls from other members of Congress.
Why?
Because we’re all superdelegates.
14 million people voted in the Democratic primary, but the way it works is that the effect of those votes is basically to instruct the delegates from each state how to vote at the convention (which starts in three weeks).
There are about 4,000 delegates across the country. North Carolina, for example, has roughly 150.
Until yesterday, pretty much all of those delegates were locked up by the president.
Now they’re unlocked. They can vote however they want. They’re free agents.
As a member of Congress, I’m not one of those delegates - I’m what’s oddly called a superdelegate. In reality, it means I don’t get to vote unless the convention goes to a second ballot. Only regular delegates get to vote on the first ballot, so if someone immediately wins, the superdelegates are just there to smile and wave.
Let me cut to the chase and tell you what I think is about to happen:
I think the vice president is going to hit 2,000+ delegates pledging their vote to her within the next week. My strong sense is this will not be an open convention and she’ll be the nominee on the first ballot.
I also expect her to name her vice presidential running mate pretty quick. There are three or four names we’re hearing for that, one of which is the governor of my home state, Roy Cooper.
But will anyone challenge the vice president at the convention?
Two things on that:
First, you have to have the support of at least 300 delegates to be listed on the ballot at the convention. Making it even harder is a rule saying that only 50 of them can come from one state, so you have to have support from at least six different states.
Second, the vice president’s most formidable potential opponents are all endorsing her. There was a moment last night where it looked like Sen. Joe Manchin was going to try and challenge her, but he backed down this morning.
Which is all to say, the vice president is about to become the nominee in extremely rapid fashion. She will inherit the entire existing campaign structure, complete with staff, field offices, and warchest. A pretty seamless transition.
I think we will be fully unified in about a week - which is absolutely, totally remarkable given how sudden and dramatic this transition was.
