01/15/2025
Continuing the theme of high volatility, we watched the February NYMEX contract trade up to $4.369 on Tuesday which is .942 cents higher than the $3.427 low that hit four trading sessions ago on January 8th. The market is focused on the rapidly changing weather forecasts and trying to gauge the impact that temperatures will have on storage. Market analysts have been all over the board as far as predicting this week’s report from the EIA, but most agree that it will surpass last year’s 154 BCF draw and the 5-year average draw of 128 BCF. Bullish analysts have speculated a draw in the neighborhood of 290 BCF while the bears are calling for a draw in the 190s. Aiding the market volatility is the fact that stronger draws could be expected if the weather forecasts move to the colder side for the balance of January. Midcontinent cash prices rallied back over the $4.00 mark this week at several hubs while Florda Zone 3 settled at $4.91 for gas day 14 flow date. Last week’s storage report stated a draw of only 40 BCF bringing the new total to 3.373 TCF. That level is three BCF below last year and 207 BCF above the 5-year average. Crude oil traded over $79.00 this week as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a record 6.1 million oil contracts trade through their platform. The increase in trading activity came as sanctions expanded last week against Russian oil. Citi Research estimates that roughly 800,000 barrels per day could be taken off the market from the sanctions. The latest rig count data from Baker Hughes reported the total rig count fell by five rigs last week to 584 rigs. Oil rigs dropped by two while gas rigs fell by three. One year ago, the total rig count was 619. This week’s additional graphic from the EIA highlights the LNG facilities that currently exist and that are under construction. Plaquemines LNG, the eighth export terminal in the US, shipped its first cargo on December 26, 2024. Plaquemines used a mid-scale liquefaction technology which has a smaller timeline for construction. Calcasieu Pass also uses this technology.