09/04/2026
*** A NON-HYPE VERSION OF WHAT THIS WINTER IS GOING TO BE LIKE WITH THE VERY STRONG EL NINO CONDITIONS ***
Since things are so quiet in the tropics, my wife, Meg, wanted me to send out a write up that addresses the extreme hype surrounding the very strong El Nino conditions without any context or explanation. Instead, I want to give you a non-hype and down to earth explanation of what to expect this winter.
- WHAT IS EL NINO? El Nino is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.
The El Nino that we are currently having is one of, if not the strongest, on record. El Nino conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Ninos on record were in 1997 and 1982 & I do think that we will surpass both of those El Nino in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.
Unlike what you may have seen on social media, this El Nino is not going to lead to the destruction of the United States or be the catalyst for the end of the world. It is going to be a very strong El Nino, that will have some large impacts on the weather this winter across the United States.
- WHAT ABOUT THIS UPCOMING WINTER? El Nino winters, especially those winters with strong El Nino conditions, can be particularly harsh for areas across the southern United States and the Florida Peninsula. This is due to the development of a particularly strong sub-tropical jet stream that often leads to a very active storm track that is centered over the southern United States.
FLORIDA PENINSULA: An active southern storm track this winter is likely to lead to frequent bouts of significant severe weather, heavy rain and flooding across the Florida Peninsula.
I am pretty concerned that January and February could be particularly stormy across the Florida Peninsula, in terms of both heavy rain & significant severe weather. Some past El Nino winters have produced some significant tornado events across parts of the Peninsula & this is something that’ll need to be watched very closely.
Bottom line is that El Nino winters are wet, cool and very stormy across the Florida Peninsula. This means that this winter may be anything but sunny across the Sunshine State.
SOUTHERN & SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES: Across the southern and southeastern United States, El Nino winters are very often stormy with a pattern that promotes not only heavy rainfall & the threat for flooding, but also some winter weather. This means that ice and snow risks could be a concern this winter at times across the Carolinas, as well as across the Tennessee Valley. It’s actually possible that there could be a winter weather threat as far south as the northern Gulf coast at some point in January or February.
Further west, above average rainfall and below average temperatures likely will extend westward to about the Texas Gulf coast, while a large majority of the rest of Texas should be closer to average for rainfall this winter.
One thing that many El Nino winters bring is the threat for winter weather across the Texas Panhandle into parts of far north Texas & I do think that we could see some winter weather threats during January and February across the Texas Panhandle and across far north Texas.
MID-ATLANTIC STATES & THE NORTHEASTERN US: I do think that this could be a winter where precipitation amounts are above to possibly well-above average across much of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. I do want to emphasize that this does not necessarily mean that it’s going to be a snowy winter across this region. In fact, the further north one goes in New England, the less snowy as compared to average it could be.
All-in-all, I think this winter will be above average in terms of temperatures across the northeastern US & across the Mid-Atlantic States. In addition, an active storm track is expected to curve up the East Coast & likely will lead to quite a bit in the way of storminess.
The big bug-a-boo in the forecast for this winter is how much of this storminess will be in the form of snow. Seasonal snow forecasts are always extremely uncertain & these types of forecasts should always be taken with a pound of salt. The reason why is because typically it only takes one or two storms in a winter to make or break a winter in terms of snow.
Given that we are probably going to see a winter where the temperatures will be above average, it’s going to take a “perfect” storm setup to create above average snow amounts for both the Mid-Atlantic States and the Northeastern United States. Because of this, I’m leaning more towards widespread below average snow amounts this winter across both the Mid-Atlantic States and across the northeastern United States.
What I’m more concerned with this winter is the possibility of one or two significant ice storms across New England and New York State. Many past El Nino winters have produced some very notable and destructive ice storms across this region & this is something that’ll need to be watched during the months of January and February.
ALL-IN ALL, while this very strong El Nino WILL NOT bring upon a disaster of biblical proportions (wait for the Ghostbusters quote), “Fire & brimstone from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes and volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together—MASS HYSTERIA!”, it will help to produce a winter that’s anything but quiet across the southern United States, the Florida Peninsula & across the eastern United States.
