Weather Analysis & Reconnaissance for Disturbance Event Network

10/14/2025

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09/28/2025

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09/27/2025

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09/27/2025

**To:** All Teams
**From:** Command Desk
**Date:** September 27, 2025
**Subject:** Hurricane Situation Report

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Current Situation

* **Hurricane Humberto**

* Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds near 145 mph.
* Currently northeast of the Leeward Islands.
* Forecast track takes it between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda.
* Producing dangerous surf, rip currents, and coastal effects in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Bermuda.

* **Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (Likely “Imelda”)**

* Developing system near eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.
* Heavy rain and gusty winds ongoing across Dominican Republic, Cuba, and Turks & Caicos.
* Forecast to strengthen into Tropical Storm Imelda.
* Southeast U.S. (especially the Carolinas) at risk for rainfall, flooding, wind, and possible storm surge early next week.

* **Other Activity**

* Hurricane Gabrielle has transitioned to an extratropical system; no longer a U.S. threat.
* Atlantic season remains active, with multiple major hurricanes already recorded.

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Key Risks

* Dangerous surf and rip currents already affecting U.S. coastal waters.
* Southeast U.S. may face flooding and storm surge impacts depending on Imelda’s track.
* Forecast uncertainty remains high—impacts could shift with small track changes.

Action Items

1. Maintain close monitoring of Humberto’s offshore path.
2. Begin readiness checks in the Carolinas for possible Imelda impacts.
3. Reinforce public messaging on surf, rip current, and flood risks.
4. Update situational awareness reports every 12 hours.

09/26/2025

🌪️ **Are You Ready? Build Your Storm Kit Today!** 🌪️

When severe weather strikes, every second matters. A well-prepared storm kit can make all the difference for you and your family. Here’s what to include:

✅ Water – 1 gallon per person per day (3 days minimum)
✅ Non-perishable food + manual can opener
✅ Flashlight & extra batteries
✅ NOAA weather radio (battery or hand-crank)
✅ First aid kit & prescription meds
✅ Phone chargers / power banks
✅ Important documents in waterproof bag
✅ Clothes, blankets, sturdy shoes
✅ Supplies for infants, pets, or special needs

⚡ **Pro Tip:** Store everything in a waterproof bin or backpack that’s easy to grab. Keep one at home *and* in your car.

WARDEN is here to keep you prepared, safe, and informed. 💪 Stay ready, stay alert.

09/26/2025

🔍 Current Status of Humberto

* **Category / Strength**: Humberto has rapidly intensified and is now a *Category 3 hurricane*, with maximum sustained winds about **115 mph** (185 km/h). ([National Hurricane Center][1])

* **Location**: Approximately **430 miles (690 km) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands**. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

* **Movement**: Moving toward the **west-northwest** at about 5 mph. Over the weekend, that track is expected to gradually shift to more *northwest*, then *north-northwest* by Monday. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

* **Forecast / Strengthening**: Additional intensification is expected. Humberto is forecast to remain a major hurricane through the weekend, possibly reaching **strong Category 3** or even **Category 4** strength. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

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# # ⚠️ Hazards & Impacts

* **Marine / Coastal Hazards**: Humberto will generate dangerous swells, high surf, and strong rip currents affecting the **northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Bermuda** over the weekend. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

* **No Coastal Watches/Warnings** for land at this time from Humberto. It is not expected to make U.S. landfall. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

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# # 🔭 Outlook / Path

* The forecast path indicates Humberto will turn northward by early next week. By that point, it may veer eastward, staying offshore. ([National Hurricane Center][1])

* There is potential for **impacts to Bermuda**, though still some uncertainty. ([People.com][2])

[1]: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3%2Bshtml/251437.shtml?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory - NHC"
[2]: https://people.com/hurricane-humberto-forms-second-system-churns-even-closer-us-11819782?utm_source=chatgpt.com "Hurricane Humberto Has Formed and a Second Storm System Is Churning Even Closer to the U.S."

Hurricane Humberto has formed in the Atlantic and a second system is expected to develop in the coming days.

09/26/2025

MEMORANDUM
To: All Teams
From: Weather Desk
Subject: U.S. Weekend Weather Outlook

Overview

This memo provides a regional breakdown of the weather forecast across the United States for this upcoming weekend (Friday–Sunday). Conditions vary by region, with localized risks of thunderstorms, heat, and flooding in certain areas.

Regional Forecasts

Northeast

Friday: Variable clouds with late-day showers possible. Highs mid-70s.
Saturday: Sun early, turning cloudy. Highs mid-70s.
Sunday: Warm with partial clearing. Highs near 80.

Southeast

Friday: Humid with isolated storms. Highs mid-80s.
Saturday: Sun and clouds; scattered afternoon storms. Highs low 80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny, humid, chance of afternoon showers. Highs mid-80s.

Midwest

Friday: Mix of sun and clouds; afternoon thunderstorms in spots. Highs upper 80s to near 90.
Saturday: Variable cloudiness; afternoon storms possible. Highs mid-80s.
Sunday: Partly sunny with scattered storms. Highs upper 80s to near 90.

Southwest

Friday: Sunny early, then clouds; afternoon storms possible. Highs low 70s in cooler zones, warmer elsewhere.
Saturday: Cooler with sun then clouds; heavy thunderstorms possible with flash flood risk. Highs mid-60s to 70s.
Sunday: Partly sunny; scattered afternoon storms remain possible. Highs low to mid-60s.

Northwest

Friday: Sun with clouds; smoke from wildfires impacting air quality. Highs mid-70s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and warmer; haze persists. Highs mid-80s.
Sunday: Very warm with sun; near-record highs around 90.

Great Plains

Friday: Sunny and mild to warm. Highs mid-80s.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, warming. Highs upper 80s.
Sunday: Continued sunshine and warmth. Highs mid-80s.
Notes
Localized thunderstorms could produce severe weather in parts of the Midwest, Southeast, and Southwest.
Northwest residents should remain mindful of wildfire smoke and elevated heat Sunday.
Southwest carries a flash flood risk Saturday into Sunday.

Please monitor local forecasts for updated and location-specific details.

End of Memo

09/26/2025

✅ Active Systems / Disturbances

Hurricane Humberto

Located in the subtropical central Atlantic, Humberto has intensified into a hurricane.
Statesman
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3

Its current stats: about 22.2°N, 57.3°W, moving northwest at ~3 mph (slow movement). Minimum central pressure ~ 990 mb, sustained winds ~ 75 mph.
Houston Chronicle
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3

Expected to strengthen significantly, possibly reaching major hurricane strength over the weekend.
National Hurricane Center
+2
Houston Chronicle
+2

For now, direct threat to the U.S. coast appears limited, though impacts like large swells, rip currents along the East Coast / Bermudas are possible.
Houston Chronicle
+1

Disturbance AL94 (also being monitored / possible future Tropical Storm Imelda)

This is a tropical wave/disturbance located near Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Turks and Caicos, moving toward the southeast Bahamas.
The Washington Post
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3

The system is organizing: showers & thunderstorms increasing, signs of developing a low-pressure area.
National Hurricane Center
+2
Houston Chronicle
+2

Formation probability: ~ 80% within 48 hours, ~ 90% over 7 days.
National Hurricane Center
+2
National Hurricane Center
+2

Projected to possibly become a tropical depression / storm when near or over the central/northwest Bahamas over the weekend. Tracks suggest it may move northwestward or northward, posing risk for parts of the southeastern U.S. (Georgia, Carolinas) early next week.
Houston Chronicle
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3
The Washington Post
+3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle

Gabrielle has moved away from the Azores and is now post-tropical.
Statesman
+3
AP News
+3
National Hurricane Center
+3

Its winds are still producing swells, surf, and coastal impacts far from its center. But it's no longer forecast to significantly impact U.S. territories directly.
Reuters
+1

⚠️ Risks / Concerns

AL94 / potential Imelda is the main concern for U.S. East Coast: heavy rainfall, gusty winds, possible storm surge if it tracks toward the southeastern coast. Uncertainty remains in exact path and strength.
National Hurricane Center
+2
The Washington Post
+2

Marine impacts from Humberto (waves, rip currents) are likely even if it stays offshore.
National Hurricane Center
+2
Houston Chronicle
+2

Because there are two active nearby systems (Humberto + AL94), some models are checking for possible interactions (Fujiwhara effect), which could influence their paths/intensity. But such interactions are uncertain and not guaranteed.