04/17/2026
The SPC has significantly shifted the level 3 to the east, and it now completely covers not only Lincoln County, but the entire surrounding region as well. This shift continues to show increasing confidence in a more widespread severe weather event later today.
Timing has continued to be refined. Current expectations place the primary window for Lincoln County beginning around 5pm and continuing through the evening hours. That said, earlier development cannot be completely ruled out if storms are able to initiate ahead of the main system.
This is the most significant chance for severe weather we have had this spring, and all agencies should be prepared for the potential of multiple rounds of storms and rapidly changing conditions.
What is certain is that storms will develop quickly to our west this afternoon and track east across the state. The overall setup supports an environment capable of producing severe storms, and confidence continues to increase that at least some portion of the warned area will see impactful weather.
The chance for rotating supercells in front of the main line has increased. These storms would pose the greatest tornado threat, along with the potential for large hail. As the system evolves, storms are expected to transition into a more linear mode, which will shift the primary hazard to damaging straight line winds, with embedded circulations still possible within the line.
Given the timing, this event will likely impact the evening commute and early nighttime hours, which can increase risk to the public. Messaging should emphasize situational awareness, multiple ways to receive warnings, and having a plan in place before storms arrive.
A strong cold front will lead to the development of severe thunderstorms over northwest Missouri this afternoon. These storms will track southeast into the area this evening into late tonight. Thunderstorms will weaken, but exactly where and how soon remains uncertain. Check weather frequently to ensure you catch the latest updates and have multiple ways to receive warning information.