01/25/2026
📢🚨HVW Final Storm Forecast : Sun 1/25 - Mon 1/26
🚨 Storm Update #9🚨
📢Synopsis📢
Storm is now about 12 hours out, final preparations should be made at this time:
◾Start Time: 7AM- 10AM Sunday 🕕
◾End Time: 12AM-5AM Monday ( 🚨See Wild Cards below) 🕛
◾Extreme Cold - Temps in single digits & teens during event 🥶
◾Heaviest Snow expected between 12pm Sunday and 12am Monday
▪️Snowfall Rates 1-2”+ per hour 📈
▪️Low visibility 🌫️
▪️Dangerous to impossible travel 🚙
◾Snowfall Accumulations:📏(See snow map)
▪️South of I-287: 8" to 12" (6 to 8hrs of snow followed by 0.5" to 2" of sleet)
▪️South of I-84: 12" to 16" (mixing with sleet is a concern)
▪️ I-84 corridor on North: 16" to 20" (all snow - Localized totals up to 24”)
▪️ Catskills: 20" to 24"+ possible in highest elevations
◾Long duration event 18+ hours ⏳
▪️Light snow showers possible throughout the day on Monday
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🔎🧐🃏Wild Cards & Forecast Concerns
1️⃣- 👀 Now-Casting this storm :
We are now entering the Now-casting portion of the event. That's where we take viewer observations and compare against the computer data, to see how the storm is performing against the forecast data. Some of the things we're watching for:
▪️Mesoscale banding. Long time followers know this is always near the top of our wildcard list! Where these bands set up, remain stationary or pivot will see the maximum snow totals. These often are never nailed down, and are now-casted during the event.
▪️Track & strength of the low pressure... when dealing with overrunning snow events, the track is critical. The further north the low pressure tracks, and the stronger the low pressure is, the more 'warm' air will push into the mid-levels of the atmosphere over the Hudson Valley... leading to snow changing to sleet in portions of the area.
We will watch and compare the progress of the snow/sleet line, against the data used to generate our forecast. This allows us to help keep you informed and a step ahead of the dynamics of this storm.
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2️⃣- 📈 Rising Concern : Snow / Sleet boundary
This continues to be an item of concern for the forecast. We'll use now-casting to monitor the mid-level warm nose of air to see how far north the snow/sleet line reaches. A period of sleet in Westchester and Rockland can’t be ruled out, and the NAM model has suggested sleet could mix in across southern Orange and Putnam counties.
This would dramatically cut down snow totals where sleet mixes in. The NAM model is one of the best tools to identify the mid level warming... so we can't discount that info. Our snowfall forecast has factored in this concern, and is the reason for the slightly lower totals south of I-84, and the much lower totals near NYC.
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3️⃣- 📈 Rising Concern : "Dry Slotting"
We will monitor the potential for the region to be impacted by a dry slot of air. Whenever you have a transfer of energy to a coastal low, you need to be aware of a dry slot punching into the SW side of the storm.
This can reduce snowfall rates, lull precipitation, eat away at snowflake growth and lead to weak dendrites and inefficient accumulations. Again the lower Hudson Valley is at highest risk for this, and our snowfall forecast factors this in as well.
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4️⃣- Potential for Light Snow through the day Monday.
As this storm departs early Monday, the coastal low pressure will be rapidly intensifying. This will potentially result in a deformation band of snow lingering over eastern NY through the day on Monday.
This snow would likely be light and scattered in nature (accumulating an additional 1 to 2 inches at most). But if this occurs, it could delay cleanup efforts and make snow removal more difficult. The 'real' accumulating snow ends well before sunrise on Monday.
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There's a LOT to contend with here. We'll be monitoring the development of this storm constantly through the event. Please check back with us for more updates. Stay warm and stay safe. Thank you for all your continued support!
