02/22/2026
⚠️⚠️⚠️To Say the Quite Part Out Loud- VERY high bust potential to even our somewhat conservative forecast, prepare for that possibility⚠️⚠️⚠️
🚨HVW FINAL Snowfall Forecast: Sun 2/22 - Mon 2/23
🔎Forecast Summary🔎
⏰Timing
◾Now to 4pm: Periods of scattered snow showers.
◾4pm to 10pm : Snow intensifies, becomes heavy from S to N
◾10pm Sun to 10am Mon: Heavy snow, rates of 1 to 2"+ per hour
◾10pm Mon to 4pm Mon: Snow tapers off west to east
💨Winds & Impacts:
◾Winds gusting 20-40 mph by Sunday eve into Monday
◾Higher gusts across the higher elevations and areas south of I-84.
◾Blizzard conditions possible, near whiteout conditions
◾Blowing and drifting snow expected (2 to 3 feet+).
📏❄️Snow Accumulations:
◾Western Catskills: 3" to 9" (🚨low confidence)
◾Majority of Hudson Valley I-84 on north: 10" to 18"+
◾Lower Hudson Valley, I-84 on south: 16" to 20"+
⚠️Sharp cutoff on western edge, is area of greatest uncertainty. Exact track of Low Pressure will determine western edge of snow & area of subsidence. Further west you go, the more uncertain the snowfall totals.
📢Detailed Discussion📢
Light snow is already falling across portions of the region, in relation to an inverted trough set up over the eastern US. This light snow is the precursor to the 'main event' which will begin later today. The guidance is still a bit conflicting, but the specific start time is closer to 4pm the further south you go... and possibly as late as 10pm closer to the Capital district... but most will see the moderate to heavy snow arrive between 5pm and 8pm.
The snow intensifies by midnight, and falls heavily... at the rate of 1 to 3 inches per hour through the overnight hours. The Monday AM commute is likely a total mess, especially the further east you go. Steady moderate to heavy snow continues until late morning Monday... when it gradually begins to taper off from west to east during the afternoon hours.
🚨⚠ Forecast has big 'Boom / Bust Potential'
We apologize for the delay... but we're having flashbacks to 2022 and 2015, when we watched as our forecast collapsed in real time, mere hours before the event. All the guidance shifted at the last minute, pulling the heavy snow out of our area as the flakes began to fly... and the storm busted dramatically. Hopefully we avoid that fully this time, but that is the cause for the delay in the final forecast. We've talked all week about the position of the Upper Level Low (ULL) off the east coast, and how there was concern the ULL would slide further out to sea and pull the surface low pressure further east as well. Yesterday, guidance shifted further west by a considerable margin, bringing heavy impacts to most of the Hudson Valley. Late last night and early this morning, we started to see a noticeable shift further east once again, and this adjustment has MAJOR implications for the forecast, especially the further west you go.
◾Subsidence & Downslope dramatically cut snowfall totals down in the western half of the Catskills and all points west. For that reason, we have considerably lowered expectations to 3" to 9". But please understand, additional shifts of 25mi to 50mi in either direction could put those areas near a foot... or closer to 1 or 2 inches. The western edge will feature sinking air, and you will see a dramatic drop off between moderate/heavy snow... and nearly no snow at all.
◾Deformation band will determine if we see high end amounts in the valley. With nor'easters, as they spin up the coast, often times you will see a 'deformation band' of snow set up on the NW edge of the storm. The snow bands rotate outward from the low pressure, and eventually reach an area of subsidence where it runs into sinking air that cuts off the precipitation. The bands of snow continue to rotate out, piling moisture up against the subsidence and it creates a rather narrow, intense band of snow. Because of how a nor'easter tracks, that deformation band can pivot over our area for several hours, resulting in several inches of snow beyond what was projected. Many times this band sets up to our northwest, over the Catskills and central NY. We'll see if that is located over the Hudson Valley this time... especially with the low pressure track near or just east of the benchmark (40°N, 70°W).
◾Mesoscale banding over SE Hudson Valley.... the bands of snow will rotate in off the Atlantic Ocean, and parts of Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester counties stand the best chance of seeing the most intense snow bands off the Atlantic. Those heavier bands could see snowfall rates over 4" per hour for brief periods. So if anyone is going to exceed 20" of snow... it would be the higher elevations in the Catskills as well as the higher elevations of the SE Hudson Valley.
In closing... the expected western edge of the snow has collapsed over 100 miles east since Saturday night, to the point where locations in NW Sullivan county may not reach more than 3 or 4 inches. Binghamton is projected to see 0.0" on some data. If this trend continues Sunday afternoon... snowfall totals will be lowered further east. You can see how the 3" to 9" range digs into the western Hudson Valley... and there is a possibility that moves further east. However... it is our belief that the shift has gone as far as it will go... and that snow totals will reflect our forecast.
We will continue to track this storm, and share updates throughout the day. And I will again close with Alex's words... because thanks to this complex forecast, I also need to "Keep Calm and Weather On."
-Bill
