08/26/2026
Our recent Revenue and Economic Forecast showed little movement in anticipated revenue since the previous quarter. However, our team noticed some notable trends that could indicate where our state is heading.
The increase in revenue from personal income taxes offset a $187 million decrease in revenue from corporate income taxes and the Corporate Activities Tax (or CAT). This comes right after The Oregonian recently reported that business closures are starting to outpace business openings.
Additionally, our team noticed that, while the U.S. had its best quarter for manufacturing job creation in three years, Oregon saw the state’s worst non-recessionary quarter for manufacturing job losses in twenty-three years. Since 2023, Oregon has lost 1 out of every 10 manufacturing jobs — sustaining fourteen straight quarters of losses.
That equates to one job lost every 1.5 hours.
This contradicts the popular understanding that our economy is exclusively suffering from federal instability. While it would be irresponsible to place the blame exclusively on one contributing factor, the Governor’s Prosperity Council recommendations point to specific policy changes that must be made to get Oregon back on track.