06/19/2026
Good morning,
A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather exists for the entire region today.
Bottom Line:
Moisture associated with the remnants of Arthur continues to move across the Tri-State as it merges with a cold front. A Flood Watch remains in effect today for Southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and portions of Southwest Georgia, which closely aligns with a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall; there is a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) to Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall elsewhere.
Overview:
Flood Potential: Heavy rainfall is the primary concern at this time. A Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall exists across Southeast Alabama. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall implies the potential for numerous flash floods, especially where higher end totals occur (A Reasonable Worst-Case Scenario), and may only occur a few times per year. Rainfall totals are generally forecast between 3" to 7" through tonight (including yesterday), but there is the potential for a Reasonable Worst-Case Scenario of 8” to 12” especially in Southeastern Alabama. These amounts over a short period may result in dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding.
There is also the potential for minor river flooding along the Choctawhatchee, Pea, and Shoal River basins should very heavy rainfall occur. Moderate river flooding cannot be ruled out if the high-end totals materialize, mainly on the Choctawhatchee and Shoal.
Severe Potential: In terms of severe weather, there is the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts today. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms remains in place across the region today.
Beach Conditions: There is a high risk of rip currents along the Walton, Bay, and Gulf County beaches through Sunday, and the Franklin County beaches through Saturday. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect for Walton and Bay County beaches through late Friday morning with surf up to 6 feet and minor beach erosion.