05/15/2026
We're going into what appears to be a developing strong El Nino pattern. This often times, but not always... Results in a generally cooler summer locally with more cold fronts than normal, and increased influence of Pacific airmasses. Looking way ahead to winter.... A strong El Nino would typically favor above normal temps and below normal snowfall... with continued increased influence of Pacific airmasses. Pacific airmasses tend to be more moderate, cooler than average for us in summer and warmer than average for us in winter. Hurricane activity in the Atlantic should be fairly subdued by the resultant subsidence there caused by the relatively adjacent increased rising air in the Pacific. What air that goes up must come down! That being said it only takes one hurricane impact to mess up your day.
I don't focus much on long range because it's very messy but the signals in this case are quite strong... An El Nino as strong as is currently expected basically overwhelms most other major influences on the pattern. They turn into small variables. So I have some confidence.
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