06/17/2026
Hey everyone,
If you’ve been watching the weather forecast, you’ve probably seen that our area is expected to experience strong storms tonight into tomorrow morning. We’re hoping for the best, but with storms like these, there is a good chance we could see downed trees and debris along the Marion Tallgrass Trail and throughout our parks.
As a reminder, The Marion Tallgrass Trail, Greenspur , Terradise and Myers Woods maintenance is performed by dedicated volunteers. Following a significant storm event, it may take some time to completely clear trails, as many of our volunteers may also be dealing with storm damage on their own properties.
If you’re interested in helping, we’d love to have you. Even something as simple as removing small branches or brush can make a big difference. If you aren’t able to volunteer for cleanup, you can still help by scouting the trails after the storms and reporting any downed trees or hazards.
If possible, please take photos of any fallen trees and send them to us. Pictures help our volunteers determine the size of the tree, what equipment may be needed for removal, and whether hazards such as poison ivy are present so we can better prepare and protect volunteers who may be allergic.
As we’ve always said, these are community parks, and it takes the support of the community to help keep them safe, accessible, and enjoyable for everyone.
Thank you for your continued support. Let’s hope the storms stay mild, but if they don’t, we’ll work together to get our trails back in shape as quickly as possible.
🌪️ POTENTIAL HIGH‑IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER DAY 🌪️
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION — SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE
ISSUED 7:00 AM EDT — HIGH‑IMPACT EVENT POSSIBLE
Current observations show 50s to low 60s for temperatures and dew points in the low 50s — and yes, that’s exactly what we expect at this stage of the setup. The atmosphere is in its “pre‑loaded” phase, and the ingredients don’t come together until the warm front lifts northward later today.
🧭 WARM FRONT POSITION = THE ENTIRE FORECAST HINGE
As of this morning, the warm front stretches from central Iowa → central Illinois → central Indiana.
This boundary is the key player today. Through the afternoon, it will begin sliding north. As it does:
*A corridor of richer moisture surges in
*Temperatures jump well into the 70s
*Low‑level shear dramatically increases
*A band of rain/storms rides along the front
How far north the warm front gets — and when it gets there — will determine the magnitude and placement of the tornado threat.
🌪️ AFTERNOON TORNADO WINDOW (3 PM – 7 PM)
As the warm front lifts, the environment becomes supportive of discrete or semi‑discrete rotating storms, especially west of Marion / Springfield / Sandusky.
A tornado cannot be ruled out during this window, before the main convective complex arrives later tonight.
This is the zone where:
*Surface winds back
*The LLJ begins strengthening
*Hodographs curve sharply
*Forcing overlaps the boundary
It’s a legitimate mesoscale concern.
⛈️ MAIN SEVERE COMPLEX ARRIVES TONIGHT
Timing:
NW Ohio: 8 PM – 11 PM
Rest of the region: 10 PM – 4 AM
There is some uncertainty regarding how long the afternoon warm‑front convection lingers, but current trends favor dissipation as the primary severe complex organizes across Illinois → southern Michigan → northern Indiana.
This is where upscale growth begins and the high‑impact portion of the event develops.
🌀 EXTREME WIND PROFILES = HIGH‑END SEVERE POTENTIAL
Tonight’s environment features a rare combination for our region:
*70+ kt 850 mb jet from the SSW
*60–70+ kt 500 mb jet from the west
*Southerly surface winds feeding the warm sector
*Strong deep‑layer shear
*Highly curved low‑level hodographs
This produces a high‑shear, multi‑hazard environment capable of:
*Damaging to destructive winds (60–80 mph)
*Several tornadoes
*Large hail (up to half‑dollar size)
*Embedded mesovortices within the line
The RED/PINK zones remain the highest tornado‑probability corridor, but a tornado cannot be ruled out in the yellow either.
Green = no meaningful tornado threat.
🌩️ OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY QUESTION — BUT SHEAR MAY CARRY THE EVENT
Even with limited instability after dark, the prolific wind shear may be enough to keep storms:
*Organized
*Forward‑propagating
*Capable of producing widespread damaging winds
This is the million‑dollar question for the yellow zone:
How much can shear compensate for marginal instability?
Historically, in setups like this, the answer is: quite a lot.
I expect a solid line east of Sandusky/Marion, with 60–70+ mph winds likely.
📡 FREQUENT UPDATES TODAY
Given the high‑impact nature of this event, I’ll be issuing frequent mesoscale analysis updates throughout the day.
If trends warrant, I will also update the severe risk map around 1:30 PM.
Stay weather aware — today is a day where the atmosphere evolves rapidly and the details matter.
