Alabama Storm Alert

Alabama Storm Alert Official page of Alabama Storm Alert. Inclement weather prediction, severe weather information, hazardous weather preparation. Recreational lifter.
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Exclusive/hype-free Alabama severe weather coverage. Owned/managed by Alex Roberts, an aspiring atmospheric scientist. Alabama Storm Alert (Alabama Storm Alert Center, alstormalert) provides weather information with regard to all types of inclement weather phenomena including: tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, flash floods, winter storms, hurricanes, and extreme hot/cold weather with special emphas

is on synoptic meteorology, mesoscale meteorology/analysis, and tropical meteorology. Products/packages include: scientifically-rooted forecast discussions, graphical weather outlooks, and LIVE watch/warning coverage serving the ENTIRE state of Alabama. This weather outlet is powered by Alexander L. Roberts, an aspiring operational meteorologist/atmospheric scientist & undergraduate student attending the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Posts/updates on this page exponentially increase during episodes of impactful weather (e.g., powerful convective scenarios). If you are interested in regularly receiving this weather information, then welcome to alstormalert! It is our primary objective to keep you thoroughly informed & safe. Aspiring atmospheric scientist. Interested in thunderstorms, supercells, tornadoes, derechos, tropical convection, mesoscale/boundary-layer meteorology, and pre-convective environments...

Thank you for over 10 years of operations! Your support is truly appreciated. IMPORTANT... Alabama Storm Alert (NGO) is NOT connected to any branch of NOAA or any other government organization.

🌪️ LOW-END TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW: A severe weather event is being monitored; isolated severe thunderstorm oc...
05/22/2026

🌪️ LOW-END TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW: A severe weather event is being monitored; isolated severe thunderstorm occurrence is now within the realm of possibility particularly throughout portions of western through northern Alabama as a disturbance (sequence of perturbations) translates throughout our area (tomorrow/05-22). Thunderstorm content will increase throughout the morning and early afternoon hours across portions of these areas; there could be enough energy to sustain a few stronger storms (w/ strong straight-line wind) and enough low-level spin to instigate a few brief tornadoes (during the daytime hours). Tomorrow's threat appears lower-echelon and should remain largely confined to the aforementioned portions of the state (western, northern); check back for updates containing updated forecast packages over the next 12-18 hours. That's really all that you need to know for now!

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates.
..for those interested, I have attached my findings relating the situation below...

📄 ULTRA-CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... satisfactory/filtered boundary-layer moisture content, ambient lapse rates, and insolation/diurnal heating (encouraging development of surface-based/deep-layer instability) will contribute to a thermodynamically-charged pre-convective environment; increasing low-level wind fields (facilitated by shortwave protrusions), southerly surface wind vectors, and sufficient EBWDs (vertical speed/directional wind shear) will contribute to a proficiently-charged kinematic pre-convective environment. This parameter space (including the main sequence of protrusions) could permit/influence amalgamations of cellular/quasi-discrete convection (w/ short-lived/cyclical rotational tendencies) potentially leading to the incidence of transient tornadogenesis and downward transfer of convective wind (downbursts). The prospect of large hailstones is uncertain; updraft strength will be largely modulated by the quality of surface destabilization. Convective potential should blossom by the mid/late morning; it could persist for several hours (lasting as late as early evening/before sunset).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; thoroughly evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🔊 ANOTHER OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. However, the spring semester has concluded, so more time/attention will be given to any convective threat that arises (for the time being).

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of western through north-central Alabama during the course of the late morning/afternoon (TOMORROW/05-22-2026). Brief tornadoes, strong to marginally severe wind gusts, small hailstones, periodic heavier rainfall, isolated flash flooding, excessive rainfall, and dangerous lightning will be possible in these areas. There is absolutely no guarantee of observing inclement weather.. in fact, most people will not. Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...09:38pm CDT 05/21/2026...0238 (UTC) FRI 05/22/2026..

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY! A late-season severe weather event is forecast to e...
05/06/2026

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY! A late-season severe weather event is forecast to eventuate this afternoon and evening (Wednesday/05-06) across portions of central, north, and perhaps southern Alabama as a large-scale storm system works its way through the area. Multiple thunderstorm clusters could traverse the state throughout the course of the day/night; severe weather potential will commence/conclude earlier across the north and later across the south. While all modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible, the greatest threat of tornadoes will collocate with the greatest energy-helicity overlap, which could be situated right over west-central through parts of low-middle Alabama. The threat of damaging winds (and large hailstones to a lesser extent) should prove to be comparatively higher than the threat of tornadoes with thunderstorms that move through northern and southern Alabama.

This could be a long-duration convective scenario; again, multiple thunderstorm bands could be observed throughout the period (afternoon, evening, overnight). Some locations, particularly across central/low-middle Alabama, could be impacted more than once. Thunderstorm potential could expand into far southern Alabama (that prospect has been steadily improving, unfortunately) during the late evening/wee hours and persist into fragments of southeastern Alabama after sunrise (tomorrow/Thursday/05-07), though the potential for significant severe thunderstorms will be largely mitigated by then. It's also important to mention that there will be a concerning risk of flash flooding/excessive rainfall that could peak across north-central Alabama beginning this afternoon. Otherwise, the rainfall experienced today will be highly beneficial.

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about today's/tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the event of a tornado-warned storm). Nocturnal severe thunderstorms can pose a greater threat to life than daytime severe thunderstorms. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates.

📄 ULTRA-CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... our thinking remains largely unchanged; convective potential will flourish by the afternoon across portions of northern Alabama; the prospect of meaningful surface-based convection will rapidly increase before the evening throughout portions of central Alabama upon the maturation of PBL/tropospheric instability. The kinematic and thermodynamic components of the pre-convective environment could permit/instigate a multitude of convective structures (e.g., supercell, multi-cell/sub-linear, linear) capable of periodically generating all modes of severe weather. A denser concentration of tornado (& overall severe weather) potential could transpire right over west-central into middle Alabama; low-level hodographs indicate greater amounts of streamwise vorticity ingestion across those areas. Convective potential could expand across southern Alabama through the evening/nocturnal period; less influence from the anticyclone with some degree of falling heights/limited inhibition could allow for any pre-existing convective camp to maintain structure/intensity with translation across southeastern Alabama (w/ a continued convective wind risk and/or threat of a transient tornado).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; carefully evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central, north, and even south Alabama today (05/06/2026) during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. All modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible; the threat over northern Alabama could feature hail and strong straight-line winds (an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out), the threat over central (& parts of south-central) Alabama is more serious, and could feature all modes of severe weather including a stronger/longer-tracked tornado. Residual/low-end convective potential could make it to far southern/southeastern Alabama before (or by) sunrise and pose some risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and maybe a brief tornado. Take this as an indication that meteorological spring (and our main tornado/severe weather season) continues (we're now in early May; it will wrap up soon, however). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...03:46am CDT 05/06/2026...0846 (UTC) WED 05/06/2026..

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW! A more-concerning convective setup now looms t...
05/06/2026

🌪️ CONCERNING TORNADO/SEVERE POTENTIAL; SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW! A more-concerning convective setup now looms the state tomorrow/Wednesday (05/06/2026) by the late afternoon; convective potential will expand south and eastward throughout the evening/nocturnal hours from northern Alabama & into portions of central/low-middle Alabama. All severe/convective hazard types will be present (damaging winds, large hailstones, tornadoes); the threat of severe weather (& tornadoes) will increase with time and could peak across parts of west-central through perhaps middle Alabama (e.g., Tuscaloosa to Birmingham).

Thunderstorm presence could be observed tomorrow afternoon across northern Alabama; convective potential will expand southeastward with time and reach central/middle Alabama by the evening; the cumulative threat magnitude will increase with time and could peak by the middle to later evening hours right over the west-central sub-regions of the state. Convective potential will continue during the wee hours as storms travel across low-middle (& what could be considered as southern) Alabama, though convective intensity will be lessening by this point. A marginal & sparse risk of severe thunderstorms could continue after sunrise (Thursday/05-07) across parts of far southern into southeastern Alabama prior to the system making its grand exit.

📢 IMPORTANT REMINDERS: Ensure that family, friends, acquaintances, etc., are informed about tomorrow's severe weather situation; ensure that your sources of alert information are at the peak of their operational acuity/perfect-working order. Ensure that you have a severe weather safety plan that includes a safe place to take cover (in the case of a tornado-warned storm). Nocturnal severe thunderstorms can pose a greater threat to life than daytime severe thunderstorms. Stay up-to-date with the latest forecasting information; stay tuned to our page for comprehensive/complementary updates; I've attached my latest analysis below (for those who care).

📄 CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS... a clear and steady signaling for organized and potentially dangerous convective potential has been identified; severe thunderstorms will become likely over portions of central through perhaps northern Alabama by the late afternoon/early evening. A mid/upper-level trough will swing out of the plains, encouraging height/pressure falls, divergence/diffluence aloft (denoted by a large area of positive cyclonic vorticity) across the lower Mississippi Valley/Deep South. A reservoir of maritime tropical pre-convective air will be engrained preceding a surface cold front driven by southwesterly low-level moist/warm-air advection; this will aid in PBL destabilization as theta-e/CAPE fields (SBCAPE, MLCAPE, MUCAPE) increase. The pre-convective environment/forcing for deep-layer ascent (& eroding convective inhibition) could initially bias towards a mixed storm mode across parts of north-central Mississippi/Alabama, with multi-cell clusters, quasi-discrete supercell updrafts, and even storm-splitting regimes (in the wake of an initially more-unidirectional low-level hodograph regime & crosswise component to the horizontal vorticity).

Vertical speed/directional shear could increase towards sunset as the low-level jet increases; a more-concerning supercell-tornado threat could emerge across parts of central Mississippi and western/central Alabama during this time (facilitated by the resultant increase in streamwise vorticity alongside a more-oblique/orthogonal characteristic to the 0-6km shear vector in relation to the positively-oriented frontal boundary). As time advances, pre-convective energy will start to dwindle, though will remain sufficient in permitting severe thunderstorms throughout the wee hours. Surface wind vectors will once again veer (clockwise turning w/ time) after midnight, limiting vertical directional shear while pre-existing convection potentially amalgamates into one or more linear clusters (potential MCS w/ trailing stratiform shield) in the wake of the southeastward-translating surface front and enhanced surface convergence/convective outflow. Downward momentum/transfer of convective wind (potentially approaching 60mph) and perhaps a transient tornado could continue through sunrise across Alabama's low-middle and southern counties prior to storms weakening/moving off into Georgia/Florida; storms could struggle as they move towards southeastern Alabama where interactions from the upper ridge/anticyclonic flow centered to the south could occur (updraft modulation/mitigation). Upward vertical motion becomes impeded (upper support is lost, CINH increases); threat should return to zero by 18z/01p (THU).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; carefully evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of central and northern Alabama tomorrow during the late afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. All modes of severe weather (damaging wind, large hail, tornado) will be possible; the threat over northern Alabama could feature large hail and damaging winds (an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out), the threat over central Alabama is more serious, and could feature all modes of severe weather including a stronger/longer-tracked tornado. Residual/low-end convective potential could make it to southern Alabama before (or by) sunrise and pose some risk of a strong to damaging wind gust and maybe a brief tornado. Take this as an indication that meteorological spring (and our main tornado/severe weather season) continues (we're now in early May). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...07:13pm CDT 05/05/2026...0013 (UTC) WED 05/06/2026..

⚠️ MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON HORIZON: A severe weather event is closely being monitored that could come into fruition by la...
05/04/2026

⚠️ MORE SEVERE WEATHER ON HORIZON: A severe weather event is closely being monitored that could come into fruition by late Wednesday (05/06/2026) across portions of Alabama as another large-scale storm system materializes and tracks eastward throughout portions of the south-central through southeastern contiguous United States. By the looks of the system, it might feature all severe/convective hazards, though damaging winds and perhaps tornadoes would likely be the main culprits (large hail likely wouldn't be as high of a threat). If this system were to verify exactly how it is currently illustrated by the consensus of the medium-range models, convective potential would overspread much of west-central into perhaps low-middle Alabama by the mid to late evening hours of Wednesday, lasting throughout the nocturnal period (Wednesday-Thursday); damaging wind gusts (straight-line/non-tornadic) and isolated tornadoes would be the primary concerns.

However, there is still a considerable amount of meteorology to fulfill; refinements will be made to the current outlook area over the next few days. Absolutely nothing is set-in-stone; there isn't exactly enough confidence to pinpoint the exact spatial extent and magnitude of tornado/severe thunderstorm potential. Though, understand that it will likely become elevated somewhere across the state sometime on Wednesday, probably after sunset. A marginal risk of severe weather could continue across portions of Alabama into Thursday (05/07), perhaps across southern Alabama; confidence this far out is ultimately nebulous. Stay tuned for updates containing updated forecast packages pertaining to this potential inclement weather event, over the next few days.

📄 CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW/SYNOPSIS: Mid/upper-level troughing (w/ embedded shortwave impulses) should be ongoing during the period across portions of the south-central CONUS (heading towards the middle Mississippi Valley) marking the return of ambient cyclonic flow/vorticity, divergent/diffluent upper air, and falling geopotential heights overspreading a fair chunk of the southern CONUS. A surface cold front will be draped from portions of central Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley; a southwesterly deep-layer flow & low-level warm/moist-air advection regime will precede this trough and attendant frontal boundary encouraging surface-based (& elevated) instability and PBL destabilization. Vertical directional/speed shear should increase throughout the period across the Deep South in response to the trough configuration; largely-parallel deep-layer flow/bulk shear vectors in relation to the positively-oriented frontal boundary could mitigate the prospect of discrete convection (i.e., supercell updrafts) by keeping convection trained along the front, potentially instigating an organized convective straight-line wind threat w/ increasing potential for line-embedded tornadic mesocirculations (particularly across portions of Louisiana and Mississippi).

At this rate, the favorable kinematic & thermodynamic pre-convective environment (preceding the synoptic frontal boundary) could encapsulate portions of west-central Alabama after sunset; potential convective energy could be lessening by this point, though still sufficient to permit surface-based inflow and thus organized convective structures (w/ continued linear forcing/UVV) with a non-zero threat of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The spatial and temporal components of this system's severe weather threat will be better understood over the next 48-72 hours; stay tuned for important/updated information.

🔊 OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here. However, the spring semester has concluded, so more time/attention will be given to any convective threat that arises (for the time being).

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: The potential for severe thunderstorms could return to portions of Alabama by Wednesday/night (05/06-07) as a low pressure system works its way through the area; residual low-end convective potential could be observed the following day (Thursday/05-07). The areal extent (how much of Alabama is affected) and specific threat level/hazard type will be hashed out over the the next few days (likely within 48-72 hours). Take this as an indication that meteorological spring (and our main tornado/severe weather season) continues (we're now in early May). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential. Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...07:37pm CDT 05/03/2026...0037 (UTC) MON 05/04/2026..

⚠️ INCREASING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER: A complex convective situation looms our state; severe thunderstorms will be ...
04/27/2026

⚠️ INCREASING PROSPECTS OF SEVERE WEATHER: A complex convective situation looms our state; severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of northern and central Alabama tomorrow (Tuesday/04-28) as a mid-level disturbance pushes into our general region. A multitude of thunderstorm complexes could be observed in the wake of this system that could ensue by the evening hours (& last during the nocturnal period of Tuesday/early Wednesday morning). These bands could generate swaths of damaging wind gusts (straight-line/non-tornadic); the risk of large hailstones and tornadoes is considerably more uncertain. Model spread continues to be illustrated within the short-term; the spatial extent, preferred convective mode, and hazard-type of severe weather will be determined by how preceding mesoscale boundaries and antecedent convection evolve. Ultimately, irrespective of these uncertainties, a non-zero risk of severe weather will probably materialize across parts of our state during the aforementioned timeframe; ensure that you can receive warning information. While we aren't anticipating issues elsewhere across the state, at this time, there is still more meteorology to do; anticipate some adjustments to this outlook area over the next day.

A regional outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms could occur today (Monday/04-27) across portions of the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Mid-South, and Midwest. While the majority of this activity should stay off to our north, a few stronger storms could drift into parts of northern Alabama late tonight (after midnight); the threat could persist through early tomorrow/Tuesday morning. Strong to marginally severe convective wind gusts and perhaps small hail cannot be ruled out; the risk of a tornado, while non-zero, is pretty low.

As some of you know, I am a college student studying atmospheric science at UAH. Unfortunately, this sequence of events is coinciding with my finals week. My primary focus is my academic work, so this may be the only comprehensive update that I can give with regard to this particular smorgasbord of active weather. If you follow this page, chances are that you're somewhat of a weather geek (& follow several other sources of weather information, as well); you'll be all right without my full presence with this one. However, I will do my best with regard to dispersing updated weather information; thank you for understanding.

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement. Please think before hitting that share button; carefully evaluate the information that you are intending to share.

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: A significant severe weather event is forecast today across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley (& southeastern Midwestern states). Most of this activity is forecast to stay north (and west) of our state, however a few stronger storms could creep into the northern sub-regions of Alabama late tonight. Our main day is Tuesday, where strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of north and central Alabama by the late afternoon or early evening (& last overnight). While tomorrow's event in Alabama won't be as intense as what the Midwest will likely deal with today, the threat is still high enough to warrant a reasonable amount of concern (per usual).

Take this as an indication that meteorological spring is here.. as we've entered the statistical/climatological peak of our main tornado/severe weather season (we're in late April). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential (contingent upon my schedule). Remember, the weather is always changing! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather (whenever I get the chance).

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...04:58am CDT 04/27/2026...0958 (UTC) MON 04/27/2026..

⚠️ SEVERE WEATHER ON HORIZON: A potential severe weather event is being monitored for Monday (04/27/2026); the Storm Pre...
04/21/2026

⚠️ SEVERE WEATHER ON HORIZON: A potential severe weather event is being monitored for Monday (04/27/2026); the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a 15% risk contour that covers portions of our state. Model agreement in the mid-range has made it evident that at least some uptake in convective activity could become plausible by the early portion of next week. At the very least, take this as an indication that we have reached the climatological peak of our severe weather season; it is a wonderful time to ensure that you are prepared for severe weather. Ensure that your sources of watch/warning information are in perfect-working order; stay tuned to our page for updates as spatial adjustments (& perhaps categorical upgrades) are made to this area over the next several days.

As some of you know, I am a college student studying atmospheric science at UAH. Unfortunately, this event (or a similar event) could coincide with my finals week (next week); academics come first. I have not hired anybody else to manage my page; it's still all me. Given this information, I may not be able to communicate as much information as I'd like (especially on the day of the event). Though, if you follow this page, chances are that you're somewhat of a weather geek (& follow several other sources of weather information, as well); you'll be all right without my full presence with this one. I will do the best that I can in providing updates leading up to the event, however.

📄 CONDENSED METEOROLOGICAL SYNOPSIS... trouble could be brewing late in the period across portions of the lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid/Deep South (04/26-04/28); cross-model consistency has been illustrated within the medium-range w/ steady signaling of eastward trough progression and attendant organized convective potential. Specific mid/upper-level trough configurations/surface features will determine the degree and spatial extent of severe/convective potential; positive cyclonic vorticity (PVA), height/pressure falls, QG (quasi-geostrophic) forcing, WAA/low-level moisture influx (warm-air advection), may allow thermodynamic and kinematic fields to phase, potentially engraining a concerning pre-convective environment. Predictability is still somewhat compromised.. the northern extent of convective potential is modulated by PBL/deep-layer (surface through low-level) thermodynamics; the southern extent is modulated by height/pressure falls, the prospect of upward vertical motion (UVV), and low/mid-level dynamics. The Storm Prediction Center/SPC has outlined a sequence of 15% (SLGT-equivalent) risk contours (D4/Fri-D7/Mon) due to the increasing prospect of severe weather occurring from the southern plains into the Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and southeast; our main event could unfold on Monday (Day 7/04-27).

‼️ OFF-TOPIC & RELATED MESSAGE: It is not difficult to find hype on social media; it is also not difficult to inadvertently aggravate someone's inclement weather anxiety (if you suffer from inclement weather anxiety, take a moment to relax.. it will be okay). Please thoroughly evaluate the information that you intend to share; the National Weather Service is the greatest source of weather in my humble opinion, next to television/media companies with employed meteorologists. Furthermore, there are some independent & trustworthy weather outlets out there that focus on providing scientific information and direction as well, which is what I strive to do on this page. The main issue pertains to the fact that certain outlets will share near-meaningless model solutions portraying chaotic scenarios in exchange for likes, shares, follows, and engagement; this type of conjecture has no place in ethical forecasting communications. Be very careful with what you look at and do with it.

🔊 ANOTHER OFF-TOPIC MESSAGE: I apologize for the lack of posts/activity on this page. Again, I am college student studying atmospheric science (I attend the University of Alabama in Huntsville/UAH), and have been rather busy these last few months. I am placing academics first, though will update the page when I can. Obviously, there are far better and more reliable sources of weather information than me, so I hope that my absence really doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. My point is, do not be surprised with my inactivity on here; I'm trying to get my life in order!

🫵 CONCLUSION/SUMMARY: An uptake in severe weather activity is possible by early next week, perhaps in Monday. While our assessments of convective potential make it prudent to outline/communicate this risk, a fair amount can still change. Check back for updates in the coming days; I will do my best to communicate new information. Please, take this as an indication that meteorological spring is here.. as we've entered the statistical/climatological peak of our main tornado/severe weather season (we're in late April). Thank you for reading; we will continue to keep you informed with regard to inclement weather potential! As always, I will have the comments flooded with updates/other useful information pertaining to severe weather.

–
.☈malert...☈obertswx...06:08pm CDT 04/21/2026...2308 (UTC) TUE 04/21/2026..

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