09/01/2026
Trade In Goods Deficit In 2026 On Pace To Shrink To Lowest Level Vs. GDP Since 1998 https://dailytorch.com/2026/09/trade-in-goods-deficit-in-2026-on-pace-to-shrink-to-lowest-level-vs-gdp-since-1998/
Thanks to President Donald Trump’s leadership and the political risk he took in levying tariffs against U.S. trade partners to reindustrialize America, secure supply chains for domestic energy production and manufacturing and make new trade deals, the U.S. trade in goods deficit has shrunk by $181.7 billion to $534.8 billion the first six months of 2026, according to the latest data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. The news comes as U.S. goods exports have increased $166.6 billion to $1.2 trillion the first half of 2026 — an all-time record — while imports decreased by $15 billion to $1.78 trillion. It might not seem like much, but when compared to the size of the U.S. economy — on pace to reach a $32.7 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) thereabouts, if the trade deficit holds at $1.069 trillion for the year, it would only represent 3.27 percent of the economy. That would be the smallest the trade deficit has been as a share of the economy since 1998, when it was just 2.5 percent. By 1999, it was already 3.4 percent. It peaked in 2006 at 5.9 percent. After the 2007 to 2009 recession, the trade deficit stabilized out at about 4 percent of GDP since 2013, give or take a few tenths of a percent. Two of the biggest winners so far are capital goods including aircraft, industrial machinery, computers and semiconductors and energy, with boosted oil and natural gas exports during the Iran War. For the Trump trade agenda, then, getting that down to potentially 3.27 percent in 2026 would be an amazing accomplishment — unprecedented in the post-NAFTA-WTO era — and it is coming on the heels of boosting U.S. exports. Usually when the trade deficit sinks, it’s because imports decreased faster than exports during a slowdown or recession. Whereas 2026 is looking like an export boom.
By Robert Romano Thanks to President Donald Trump’s leadership and the political risk he took in levying tariffs against U.S. trade partners to reindustrialize America, secure supply chains for domestic energy production and manufacturing and make new trade deals, the U.S. trade in goods deficit h...