06/16/2026
⚠️ SOUTHEAST TEXAS FLOODING AND TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE ⚠️
Issued Tuesday June 16, 2026
Life-threatening flash flooding remains possible across portions of Southeast Texas through the next several days.
While a brief lull in rainfall is occurring early this morning, additional rounds of heavy rain are expected to redevelop during the day.
🌧️ Flooding Setup Remains Dangerous
Southeast Texas remains entrenched in an exceptionally moist tropical air mass, with precipitable water values ranging from 2.1 to 2.6 inches — among the highest ever observed for mid-June.
Atmospheric conditions continue to favor excessive rainfall:
🔹 Deep tropical moisture throughout the atmosphere
🔹 Saturated forecast soundings supportive of efficient rain production
🔹 Warm cloud depths exceeding 16,000 feet
🔹 Slow storm motions capable of producing prolonged heavy rainfall
A stalled frontal boundary remains across the region while upper-level support continues to enhance lift over Southeast Texas.
Some drier air may begin working into areas north of Houston by Wednesday, which could help reduce flooding concerns there. However, coastal communities, including the Houston metro area, are expected to remain under the influence of the deep tropical moisture plume.
🌀 Tropical Development Possible
Adding uncertainty to the forecast is a broad area of low pressure currently located near the Texas-Mexico border.
Forecast guidance suggests the disturbance will move north or northeast and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf or Texas coastal waters later today into early Wednesday.
Once over water, the system may strengthen and could briefly organize into a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a:
🔹 60% chance of tropical development during the next 48 hours
Forecast models continue to show significant differences regarding timing, track, and strength. Regardless of whether a tropical cyclone forms, the system will enhance rainfall along the Texas coast.
🚨 Major Flash Flood Threat Continues
The Weather Prediction Center continues a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall across portions of the Texas coast through early Thursday.
Expected impacts include:
🔹 Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 10 inches
🔹 Localized higher amounts where bands repeatedly move over the same areas
🔹 Rainfall rates of 2 to 5 inches per hour, with isolated higher rates possible
🔹 Significant urban, street, and low-lying area flooding
🔹 Rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers
🔹 Increasing runoff concerns as soils become saturated
⚠️ Life-threatening flash flooding is likely in some locations.
Moderate Risk outlooks are issued infrequently and typically indicate a high confidence in significant flash flooding. Historically, approximately 20% of flood-related fatalities occur on Moderate Risk days.
A Flood Watch remains in effect across Southeast Texas through Thursday morning.
🛑 Flood Safety Reminders
🔹 Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings
🔹 Stay weather aware throughout the week
🔹 Never drive across flooded roads
🔹 TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN®
💨 Wind and Coastal Hazards
In addition to flooding, several tropical-related hazards are possible.
Strongest winds are expected along the coast, bays, and Gulf waters.
Current expectations:
🔹 Sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots
🔹 Gale-force gusts possible
🔹 Rough marine conditions
The exact timing and strength of these winds remain uncertain and will depend heavily on whether tropical development occurs.
Current guidance suggests the strongest winds may occur between approximately 4 AM and 4 PM Wednesday.
🌪️ Isolated Tornado and Waterspout Risk
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the Southeast Texas coast in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
Potential hazards include:
🔹 Tropical funnels
🔹 Waterspouts over coastal waters
🔹 Brief tornadoes moving onshore
This threat would increase if the low becomes more organized.
🌊 Coastal Flooding and Rip Currents
Additional coastal impacts are expected:
🔹 Minor coastal flooding possible during high tide Wednesday and Thursday
🔹 Moderate to high rip current risk along Gulf-facing beaches
🔹 Dangerous surf and strong longshore currents
📉 Looking Ahead
The flash flood threat should gradually decrease Thursday as the system moves east.
However:
🔹 A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall remains in place Thursday
🔹 Flooding concerns may persist in areas that receive significant rainfall beforehand
🔹 Rain chances should continue decreasing into Friday and the weekend as high pressure begins building across the Gulf
Bottom Line
The next 48 hours will be critical across Southeast Texas.
Flooding remains the primary concern, with life-threatening flash flooding possible where heavy rain repeatedly occurs. Any tropical development would be secondary to the rainfall threat.
Remain alert, monitor forecasts closely, and be prepared to act quickly if Flash Flood Warnings are issued.
