01/22/2026
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1051 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026..DEVILS LAKE OUTLOOK FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL...
Devils and Stump Lakes
Long-Range Probabilistic Outlook
The National Weather Service provides long-range probabilistic
hydrologic outlooks for Devils and Stump lakes between January
and September. They will not be provided between October and
December. Depending on the season, the high or low water
probabilities may be omitted due to their applicability to
the hydrologic situation.OUTLOOK SUMMARY...
Note: This outlook incorporates a daily average of 350 cfs worth of
pumping operations on Devils Lake from May 15th through October 30th.
Precipitation last fall overall (September-November 2025) was
generally above normal across the basin. However, the fall season
ended with below normal precipitation throughout the month of
November...driest in northern portions of the basin. This allowed
soils to dry out a bit before moving into the winter freeze-up
period.
Thus far this winter, precipitation and associated snowfall has been
above normal for roughly the northern half of the basin while near to
slightly below normal in the south. This can be seen in pockets of
heavy snow cover in some locations (mainly across the northern
portion of the basin) with very little snow in other areas.
Climate outlooks indicate below normal temperatures throughout the
remainder of the winter and into the spring. There is no strong
signal either way for above, below, or near normal precipitation for
the month of February with a slight trend towards above normal
precipitation heading into spring.
The next lake exceedance numbers will be issued on Thursday, February
12, 2026.Chances of Devils and Stump Lakes Rising Above Given Lake Levels...
The
probability of exceeding a given lake level is the percentage
of maximum lake level rises that are above that level for all the
years (1949-2019) that were run through the model using the
precipitation and temperatures for those years during the valid
period of the
outlook.
Interpretation Aid: There is a 50 percent chance that Devils
Lake will rise above 51.1 feet during the valid period and
a 5 percent chance that it will rise above 52.8 feet.
Note: The current
gage
zero datum of the Devils Lake at Creel Bay
gage is 1401.33 feet NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29. The
datum of the Stump Lake at East Stump Lake
NAVD88 or 1400.00 feet NGVD29.
gage zero
gage is 1401.21 feet
Probabilities for Exceeding Listed Lake Levels
FROM JANUARY 19, 2026 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2026
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 05%-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
Devils Lake.....
CREEL BAY 50.4 50.5 50.7 51.1 51.7 52.3 52.8
Stump Lake.....
EAST STUMP LAKE 50.4 50.5 50.7 51.1 51.7 52.3 52.8Current and Previous Record High Lake Levels...
* The current
* The current
height of Devils Lake is 1448.9 feet NGVD29.
height of Stump Lake is 1448.9 feet NGVD29.
* USGS daily average
Bay
gage:
height records for Devils Lake at the Creel
...1454.30 feet on June 27, 2011
...1452.05 feet on June 27, 2010
...1450.93 feet on June 27, 2009
...1449.20 feet on May 9, 2006
...1449.18 feet on June 17, 2004
...1449.17 feet on August 2, 2005
Note: All previous records are recorded in NGVD29.OUTLOOK SCHEDULE...
- Between January and May, only the high water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of September.
- Special Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlooks will be issued
from mid-February through mid-March.
- For June and July, both high-water and low-water exceedances will
be provided.
- For August and September, only the low-water exceedances will be
provided with valid periods ending at the end of November.
- No probability information will be provided from October through
December.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
These lake level probabilities can be used for risk management as an
indication of the range of lake levels that may be possible during
the valid period of the outlook. However, note that it is possible
that lake levels may still reach above/fall below the 95th and 5th
percentile values.
This outlook is also presented as graphs of the potential lake
levels for the full outlook period as well as weekly probabilities.
These graphics, and explanations that help in interpreting them,
can be found on the NWS Grand Forks NWPS web page by clicking on
"Rivers and Lakes" above the map at www.weather.gov/fgf.
Wind and wave forecasts for Devils and Stump Lakes are available for
a 7-day period when the lakes are sufficiently ice-free at
www.weather.gov/fgf/lake_info.
If you have any questions, please contact the NWS at 701-772-0720
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