05/29/2024
Election results from May 28. Several key observations from the primary runoffs. First, Republican voters are motivated and engaged. Look at the number of votes R vs. D in every runoff. Definately much more motivation and engagement in the political process.
Second, a Trump endorsement is very difficult to overcome. Hagenbuch, whose campaign was almost non-existent except for fliers in the mail every week, had the Trump endorsement and it worked for him.
Third, less than 5% of voters voted in almost every primary with a few exceptions. Turnout wins primaries. Effort wins primaries. It just doesn't take much.
Early voting matters. The storm that rolled through N TX on Tuesday am derailed many from voting. They tended to yards, helped neighbors, worked to restore power. They weren't thinking about voting. Something always comes up. Vote early.
Lastly, the early voting and day of voting locations are often different. Most voters have no idea where to vote, so if not informed explicitly on where to vote, they often go to the wrong place and give up. 50 voters who walked away cost candidates their elections.
Now attention turns to the fall.
U.S. House Dist. 32 (R) Votes % (R)
Darrell Day 3,339 65%
David Blewett 1,795 35%
State Board of Education Dist. 12 (R) Votes % (R)
Pam Little 31,870 51%
Jaime Kohlmann 30,825 49%
Texas Senate Dist. 30 (R)
Brent Hagenbuch 18,741 57%
Jace Yarbrough 14,338 43%
Texas Senate Dist. 30 (D)
Dale Frey 1,727 57%
Michael Braxton 1,295 43%
Texas House Dist. 64 (R)
Andy Hopper 8,943 58%
Lynn Stucky 6,448 42%
