01/31/2022
A dangerous Winter Storm is headed for Oklahoma and could produce significant amounts of ICE & SNOW across the state.
Be prepared for significant amount of closings, disruptions to travel and possibly power!
❄️ I expect Winter Storm Watches to be issued within the next 12hrs…..
❄️ Data not completely locked in on exact amounts or track but some parts of the state will see over 6” to 8” plus of snow, while others see significant, potentially damaging accumulations of ice over 0.25” Strong north winds gusting over 45-50mph could lead to blizzard conditions for some and power outages for others.
❄️ Many factors still in play: # 1 A big key factor that will affect snowfall totals is the precipitation type, which will be determined by the depth of the warm nose (>0C at 850mb level. Temperatures could go back and fourth before cooling all the way down meaning we could see a prolonged period of frz rain and or sleet before a change over to all snow.
❄️ # 2 - The dry slot it’s always a factor and could be this time. I believe we need to watch a small area of SW OK into areas near or just sw of the metro .
❄️ # 3 Any last minute shift in the storm track north or south. This would greatly impact if you see more snow vs sleet or frz rain.
The map attached is my best judgment at this point based on all the data.
❄️HVY SNOW large portion of NRN into NC, NE OK. Amounts 6-8” plus, blowing and drifting snow with near or blizzard like conditions.
❄️The orange shaded area is a bit of a wild card. As the transition line moves southeast, model soundings show the warm nose lingering a bit more, allowing for greater chances for freezing rain and sleet. That said, it could take some off our snow totals in that region but I would still expect at least 2-4” snow on the low end.
❄️ Down south (red shaded zone) unless something changes we could see a particularly dangerous frz rain/ sleet storm. Eventually we will see snow, but it’ll take a bit longer for the changeover to occur.
❄️ Keep in mind this is a preliminary look and it’ll change some over the next 24-48hrs. Remember, even the slightest shift will change the amount of precipitation and type that you receive.
Stay weather aware, Oklahoma. Check the forecast frequently for any changes. - Todd
