Philippines land of pears

17/12/2023

QCPD confirms veteran actor Ronaldo Valdez passed away Sunday afternoon. | via Zyann Ambrosio, ABS-CBN News

04/02/2021

04/02/2021

Honest Economic Review for the Philippines

Philippines GDP (2019): $376,796 Billion

GDP Growth for 2020: -9.5% (equivalent to $35.80 billion loss)

Philippines GDP by the end of 2020: $340,996 Billion (still tentative not including peso exchange rate since peso has increased possibly still at $360 billion or $370 billion level for year 2020 since peso is seen stronger at 47 exchange rate)

As expected Philippines is a service-based consumer economy and with consumer confidence being at all-time low it had hit us hard last 2020.

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The Wuhan Chinese Virus might have devastated our economy as well as other countries last year 2020.

Prospects for recovery GDP estimates for Philippines

Year: 2021 6.5% up to 8% bounce back (coming from a low base)
Year: 2022 8% up to 10% (coming from a low base)

Notes:

It would take the Philippines "2 years" to be back in 2019 levels.

The problem is the pandemic gave the Philippines a long term scar possible growth rates from 2023 up to 2028 might average around 4% yearly since consumer confidence has been affected and might take many years to be back at the pre-pandemic level growth rates.

In my own personal opinion: 6.5%-8% bounce back for 2021 is still DISAPPOINTING especially we are coming back from a "LOW BASE" .

1st quarter gdp growth for 2021 would still be in a negative territory. then 2nd quarter would possibly be positive then 2nd half of 2021 would be a period of recovery growth.

Pork Prices are at all time high
(Due to combination of swine flu + transportation problem due to lockdown + pandemic)

let's be honest without the build build build initiative our economy could have gone down further it is what made our economy afloat during the pandemic times especially the consumer confidence and remittances were hit hard.

This administration just got unlucky with the pandemic it is expected with the structure of the economy being a consumer dependent economy.

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Proposal Solution to the Problem:

The Gov't must spend heavily in infrastructure! that would boost our recovery in the 2nd half of 2021.
The Gov't must spend heavily in all sectors including health since technically health sector is also infrastructure.

The spending would boost growth rates and would further increase our recovery by the 2nd half of the year.

The Philippines need to further loosen its movement restrictions as fast as possible so that our economy will recover. As much as possible MGCQ status is needed to all important centers such as Metro Manila and Cebu.

Plus

With the passage of the create bill that would lower corporate tax is essential to our recovery.

also the "MOST IMPORTANT"

We need to OPEN UP our economic restrictions to ensure that the long term economic scars will be prevented!

We need to prevent the scary predicted long term growth rates scars for 2023 up to 2028 since it will take a long time for consumer confidence to pick up. imagine a yearly 4% gdp growth rate is a scary prediction and must be prevented!

In other words Philippines is headed to an S-Shaped or K-Shaped recovery pattern. going up from a low base (2021-2022) then normalizing to low gdp growth rates 4% yearly from (2023-2028) before achieving gaining momentum to 6% yearly growth rates again.

Also with the economy recovering in the 2nd half. I would suggest to start buying stocks from the stock market while its cheap. 😁 sooner or later value of stocks would rise again in the coming years with the vaccine on its way. You won't be seeing cheap stocks again unless another pandemic happens.

04/02/2021

Human stupidity can't be explained better than this picture.😥

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