18/10/2025
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 15
Tropical Storm (FENGSHEN)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 19 October 2025
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today.
“RAMIL” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND IS NOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAT, QUEZON
Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Tropical Storm RAMIL was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Alabat, Quezon (14.1°N, 122.0°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 25 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 430 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2 Visayas Mindanao
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southeastern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan, Maddela, Aglipay), the central and southern portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda, Dupax del Sur, Dupax del Norte, Bambang, Aritao, Kayapa, Santa Fe, Kasibu), the central and southern portions of Benguet (Itogon, Bokod, Atok, Kapangan, Tublay, La Trinidad, Baguio City, Tuba, Sablan), the central and southern portions of La Union (Rosario, Pugo, Tubao, Santo Tomas, Agoo, Aringay, Caba, Naguilian, Burgos, Bagulin, Bauang, City of San Fernando, San Juan, San Gabriel, Bacnotan, Santol, Balaoan, Luna), Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, the northern and central portions of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan), the northern portion of Metro Manila (Caloocan City, Quezon City, City of Valenzuela, City of Marikina, City of Malabon, City of Navotas), the northern and central portions of Rizal (Rodriguez, San Mateo, City of Antipolo, Tanay, Baras), the northern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan) the northern and eastern portions of Quezon (General Nakar, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Quezon, Alabat, Perez, Mauban, Real, Infanta, Atimonan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez) including Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, and the northwestern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the rest of Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, the rest of La Union, the rest of Zambales, Bataan, the rest of Metro Manila, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Rizal, the rest of Laguna, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, the rest of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, the northern and central portions of Masbate (Aroroy, Baleno, Mandaon, Milagros, Balud, City of Masbate, Mobo, Uson, Dimasalang, Palanas, Cawayan) including Ticao and Burias Islands
Visayas:
Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Jipapad, San Policarpo, Oras, Arteche, Maslog), and the northern portion of Samar (Matuguinao, Calbayog City, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Pagsanghan, Tagapul-An, Almagro, Santo Niño, San Jose de Buan)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 9 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to RAMIL.
Link: tinyurl.com/wxadvisory
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the trough and outer rainbands of RAMIL and the easterlies will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today: Cagayan Valley, Oriental Mindoro, Masbate, Caluya Islands, Samar, Eastern Samar, and Biliran
• Tomorrow (20 October): Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and Masbate. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.
Link: tinyurl.com/storm-surge-warning
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Gale Warning is in effect over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today.
Link: tinyurl.com/gale-warning
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Camarines Norte, and Polillo Islands; the western seaboards of Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and Batangas; the northwestern seaboard of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 3.5 m: The northern seaboards of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboards of mainland Quezon; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of mainland Cagayan and Babuyan Islands; the seaboards of Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur; the eastern seaboards of Albay and Sorsogon
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced of operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of La Union; and the remaining seaboards of Pangasinan and Quezon.
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboard of Marinduque; the remaining seaboards of Bicol Region; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
Mariners of motorbancas and similarly sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• On the forecast track, RAMIL will continue moving west northwestward or northwestward as it makes landfall over the vicinity of Quezon Province this morning. After making landfall, it will traverse the Southern-Central Luzon landmass before emerging over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or Zambales this afternoon or evening. It will then continue moving generally northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow (20 October) morning or noon.
• During its passage over the landmass, RAMIL is expected to maintain its strength or slightly weaken due to frictional effects of mountainous terrain. Once over the West Philippine Sea, further re-intensification is highly likely, with RAMIL expected to reach severe tropical storm category while outside the PAR Region.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: tinyurl.com/RamilPH
