21/07/2023
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 1
Tropical Depression Egay
Issued at 11:00 AM, 21 July 2023
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LUZON DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND WAS NAMED EGAY.
Location of Center (10:00 AM) The center of Tropical Depression EGAY was estimated based on all available data at 900 km East of Southeastern Luzon.
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1004 hPa
Present Movement: North northwestward Slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong winds extend outwards up to 550 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signals hoisted at this time.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Forecast accumulated rainfall from Sunday morning to Monday morning
• 50-100 mm: Catanduanes and Northern Samar
In areas that will not be directly affected by EGAY, monsoon rains from the enhanced Southwest Monsoon are possible over the western sections of MIMAROPA and Visayas on Sunday. On Monday and Tuesday, monsoon rains are likely over the western sections of Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.
Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
Severe Winds
• In anticipation of possible strong breeze to gale-force conditions caused by EGAY, Wind Signals may be hoisted in some areas of Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas (especially in the eastern portion) tomorrow evening or early Sunday.
• The enhanced Southwest Monsoon may bring strong breeze to near gale conditions with intermittent gusts beginning on Saturday over MIMAROPA, Western Visayas, and western portions of Mindanao.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• EGAY is forecast to move slowly in the next 24 hours and will track generally west northwestward until late Sunday before turning northwestward over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon for the remainder of forecast period. While the current track forecast shows that EGAY will remain offshore over the waters east of Luzon, the forecast confidence cone shows that a landfall scenario over the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan and Batanes is not ruled out.
• EGAY is forecast to intensify in the next 12 hours into a Tropical Storm. Throughout its duration in the PAR region, it may continue to steadily intensify and reach Super Typhoon category by late Monday or early Tuesday as it moves over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
Source: DOST-PAGASA