04/02/2026
Tropical Depression โBASYANGโ continues to intensify in the Philippine Sea today, despite strong wind shear coming in from the north.
Satellite imagery over the last 12 hours shows convection tightening near the core, a sign of strengthening. PAGASA expects this system to become a tropical storm before landfall, likely impacting Northeastern Mindanao, with Siargao possibly entering the right-front quadrant of the storm.
While these areas have experienced stronger storms in the past, a February system can catch people off guard. Expect:
Windy conditions
Heavy to prolonged rainfall
Localized flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of Northern Mindanao
Potential river level rises, including basins near Cagayan de Oro
๐ Timing:
Rain begins Thursday morning, even ahead of landfall
Greatest impacts expected Thursday night through Friday morning
Although the low-level center is forecast to make landfall over Eastern Mindanao Thursday afternoon, rainfall will wrap in from the north, bringing 12โ15 hours of steady rain to parts of Northern Mindanao. This makes flooding a primary concern.
Cebu may see messy weather Thursday into Friday, while Tacloban and Siargao could experience tropical-storm-like conditions. Central and Northern Luzon should remain mostly unaffected for now.
โ ๏ธ Key takeaway: This is now a tropical depression, with strengthening still possible.
Please closely monitor PAGASA rainfall warnings and official advisories.
Iโll continue to track this system and aim to provide another update Thursday morning. Stay safe, everyone.
๐ต๐ญ TAGALOG
Ang Tropical Depression โBASYANGโ ay patuloy na lumalakas sa Philippine Sea, kahit may malakas na wind shear mula sa hilaga.
Batay sa satellite imagery sa nakalipas na 12 oras, mas nagiging organisado ang ulap malapit sa gitna ng bagyo, senyales ng pag-lakas. Inaasahan ng PAGASA na maging Tropical Storm ito bago mag-landfall, posibleng tumama sa Northeastern Mindanao, kung saan maaapektuhan ang Siargao.
Bagamaโt sanay na ang ilang lugar sa mas malalakas na bagyo, ang bagyo sa buwan ng Pebrero ay maaaring ikagulat ng marami. Inaasahang epekto:
Malakas na hangin
Malakas at tuluy-tuloy na ulan
Localized flooding, lalo na sa kabundukan ng Northern Mindanao
Pagtaas ng lebel ng ilog, partikular malapit sa Cagayan de Oro
๐ Oras ng epekto:
Magsisimula ang ulan Huwebes ng umaga
Pinakamalakas na epekto: Huwebes ng gabi hanggang Biyernes ng umaga
Bagamaโt sa Eastern Mindanao inaasahang mag-landfall ang sentro ng bagyo sa Huwebes ng hapon, aabot ang ulan mula sa hilaga, na maaaring magdala ng 12โ15 oras ng tuloy-tuloy na ulan sa Northern Mindanao. Ito ang pangunahing banta ng sistemang ito.
Maaaring makaranas ng magulong panahon ang Cebu mula Huwebes hanggang Biyernes, habang Siargao at Tacloban ay posibleng makaranas ng tropical-storm-like conditions. Central at Northern Luzon ay inaasahang hindi gaanong maaapektuhan sa ngayon.
โ ๏ธ Paalala: Isa na itong tropical depression at maaari pang lumakas.
Patuloy na sundan ang mga babala at rainfall advisories ng PAGASA.
Magbibigay ako ng panibagong update Huwebes ng umaga kung maaari. Mag-ingat po tayong lahat.