23/10/2024
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 13
Severe Tropical Storm (TRAMI)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 23 October 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 PM today.
“KRISTINE” HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.
Location of Center (4:00 PM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm KRISTINE was estimated based on all available data at 175 km East of Echague, Isabela (16.5°N, 123.3°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa
Present Movement: Northwestward at 20 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 730 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No.3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Luzon
Isabela, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the central portion of Abra (Malibcong, Licuan-Baay, Sallapadan, Daguioman, Bucloc, Boliney, Tubo, Luba, Manabo, Bucay, Villaviciosa, Pilar, San Isidro, Pe), Benguet, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler), the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, San Jose City, Pantabangan), Pangasinan, La Union, and the central and southern portions of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, Sigay, Suyo, Alilem, Sugpon, Tagudin, Santa Cruz, Salcedo, Gregorio del Pilar, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Burgos, San Esteban, Santiago, Banayoyo, Galimuyod, City of Candon, Santa Lucia, Nagbukel, Santa Maria, Narvacan)
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
TCWS No.2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Luzon
Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Apayao, the rest of Abra, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Luzon
Batanes, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Calamian Islands, Albay, Sorsogon, and Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
Visayas
Aklan, Capiz, Antique including Caluya Islands, Iloilo, Guimaras, the northern portion of Negros Occidental (Pontevedra, La Castellana, Moises Padilla, Bago City, La Carlota City, Valladolid, Pulupandan, Bacolod City, San Enrique, Murcia, Silay City, City of Talisay, Enrique B. Magalona, Manapla, City of Victorias, Cadiz City, Sagay City, City of Escalante, Toboso, Calatrava, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos City), the northern portion of Negros Oriental (Vallehermoso, Canlaon City, City of Guihulngan), the northern and central portions of Cebu (Alcantara, Argao, Dumanjug, Sibonga, Pinamungahan, Ronda, Liloan, Cebu City, Moalboal, Consolacion, Danao City, Borbon, Carmen, Daanbantayan, Tuburan, City of Bogo, Tabogon, City of Naga, Lapu-Lapu City, City of Carcar, Mandaue City, Catmon, Minglanilla, Toledo City, Cordova, Compostela, San Remigio, Balamban, Aloguinsan, San Fernando, Asturias, Barili, Medellin, Sogod, Tabuelan, City of Talisay) including Bantayan Islands and Camotes Islands, Bohol, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte
Mindanao
Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao - Bucas Grande Group
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 14 issued at 5:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to “KRISTINE”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of KRISTINE and the Northeasterly Windflow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (23 October): MIMAROPA, Visayas, and Mindanao.
• Tomorrow (24 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Zamboanga del Norte, Lanao del Sur, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Davao del Sur, and Davao Oriental.
• Friday (25 October): MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, Zamboanga del Norte, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.
Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to significant risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, and Quezon. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 6 issued at 2:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning No. 7 issued at 5:00 PM today.
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
• Up to high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region, and Zambales.
• Up to 6.0 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the seaboard of Lubang Island.
• Up to 5.5 m: the western seaboards of Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, and Calamian Islands.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Aurora, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
• Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Cuyo Islands; the western seaboards of mainland Palawan, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Negros Oriental.
• Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and Visayas.
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Dinagat Islands, Camiguin, and Zamboanga del Norte; the northern and western seaboards of Surigao del Norte.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
• Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Mindanao.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• KRISTINE is forecast to move generally northwestward for the next 12 hours before turning generally westward for the rest of the forecast period. It is forecast to make landfall over Isabela tonight or tomorrow (24 October) early morning. It will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region tomorrow morning. KRISTINE may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday (25 October).
• KRISTINE is forecast to further intensify until it makes landfall. Slight weakening will occur while crossing Northern Luzon. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
Link: http://tinyurl.com/kristineph
