18/06/2025
1. Tinubu vs Shettima — A “Silent War”?
•The idea of a rift is not far-fetched, especially with 2027 approaching and alliances shifting quietly.
•Key Sign: The North-East APC’s refusal to endorse Tinubu alone and insistence on a joint endorsement indicates a subtle resistance—likely from forces loyal to Shettima who feel he’s being sidelined.
•If Tinubu is seriously considering a Christian Northerner as running mate in 2027, it could be:
•A move to balance the religious tension post-Muslim-Muslim ticket backlash.
•A sign that Shettima is not guaranteed a spot in the 2027 ticket—fueling the rumor of a fracture.
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🧭 2. Political Realignment in the South
•PDP governors decamping to APC suggests the ruling party is still consolidating elite-level power.
•However, the grassroots (supporters) not following shows a disconnect between political elites and voters.
•This gives Atiku or any northern-led opposition an edge, especially if they can capitalize on southern dissatisfaction without necessarily needing southern governors.
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🌍 3. Northern Base: Atiku’s Trump Card
•Atiku still maintains a formidable structure in the North, especially with growing frustration over:
• Rising insecurity
• Economic hardship
• Unmet expectations post-2023
• If the North feels Shettima is being cast aside by Tinubu, Atiku could unify northern sentiments—both religious and political—against Tinubu.
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🔄 Possible Scenarios for 2027
A. Tinubu Drops Shettima
•Brings in a Christian Northern figure (e.g., Yakubu Dogara) to soften backlash.
•Risk: Alienates the Muslim North and weakens Northern APC cohesion.
B. Tinubu Retains Shettima
• Keeps the 2023 formula for unity’s sake.
• Risk: Further alienates Christian voters, especially in the Middle Belt and South.
C. Atiku or Another Northern Candidate Emerges Strong
•Forms a North-South coalition capitalizing on Tinubu’s unpopularity and APC’s internal cracks.
•With southern voters disillusioned and northern voters feeling sidelined, this could be a game-changer.
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🔥 What to Watch Going Forward
•APC internal politics: Does Shettima start positioning himself more aggressively? Watch his speeches, northern endorsements, and visits.
•Realignment of key figures: Where do power brokers like El-Rufai, Kwankwanso, or even Buhari stand?
•Religious balancing: Any shift by Tinubu toward Middle Belt Christians signals serious strategy change.
• Youth/mass sentiment: Civil society and social media-driven discontent could swing the South away from APC, regardless of elite moves.