25/02/2026
Structure vs Sentiment: Why the Opposition is Not Ready for 2027
By this time in 2014, Lai Mohammed and his newly recruited new-media boys were all over the digital space, taking on the then People’s Democratic Party (PDP)-led government.
They tackled policies constructively and propaganda-wise.
They set political agendas for Change.
They moulded public opinion against the ruling party with discipline and consistency.
With how fiery and consistent they were, combining constructive criticism with relentless propaganda, many Nigerians had little choice but to buy into their political agenda for Change.
Their messaging was coordinated, relentless, and focused. By the time 2015 arrived, the narrative had already shifted.
Today, we are in the build-up to the 2027 general election, an election that will first be decided by the internal democracies of the various political parties this year.
Yet the opposition is still wobbling, with no visible roadmap for the difficult task ahead.
There is no clear strategy.
Their media handlers are majoring in the minor online, loud but lacking direction.
Worse still, the remaining opposition office holders show little interest in empowering their media teams, mobilizing new hands, or strengthening their fronts to dictate agenda through structured criticism or strategic propaganda.
Instead, many appear to be waiting for Peter Obi to recreate the 2023 momentum single-handedly.
They hesitate to commit resources.
They hesitate to build structure.
They are hedging their bets, prepared to retreat quietly to enjoy their loots if the numbers do not favor them.
From the current social and political reality, there is effectively no formidable opposition in Nigeria.
There is no unity of purpose among those who claim to challenge the government. Each player has underlying interests, and if those interests are not satisfied, disarray follows.
As of today, the All Progressives Congress (APC) controls about 30 states/governors directly, with indirect alignment elsewhere, out of 36 states.
That is not a statistic. It is structure.
It translates to:
• Political structure from State to Ward level
• Financial war chest to execute elections
• Grassroots pe*******on
• Institutional alignment
Federal lawmakers, state assemblies, executive chairmen, and ward councillors largely align with their governors. That creates vertical electoral integration.
That is structure.
And structure is not something you dislodge within a year without a clear political blueprint, disciplined mobilization, and sustained funding.
We are roughly 12 months away from the election, yet the opposition has not found strategic footing.
In 2023, even when powerful interests within the establishment resisted him, Bola Ahmed Tinubu navigated turbulent waters and emerged.
If the so-called A*o Rock cabal could not stop him, even with policies like the naira redesign and withdrawal benchmarks introduced during that period, when he was outside the corridors of power, what makes anyone believe that a tactless, unstructured opposition can dislodge him now that he is Commander-in-Chief, with the machinery of the state at his disposal?
Democracy thrives on strong opposition. Healthy competition strengthens governance.
But opposition requires courage, coordination, and commitment, not hesitation. What we currently see is reluctance, fragmentation, and a refusal to commit.
You cannot defeat structure with sentiment.
You cannot substitute organization with online outrage.
You cannot build a forest with one tree.
Under the current configuration, Tinubu cannot be stopped in 2027.
That is not emotion.
That is structural reality.
— Michael Nnamdi Kizito Okenwa
Writes from Abuja, Nigeria
