06/09/2026
NE Pacific: Tropical Weather Analysis & Forecast
Sunday 06 September 2026 8:55AM PDT
𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐎𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐞𝐰
The Eastern Pacific remains in a very active state this morning, energized by late-summer sea surface heating across low latitudes and a complex clash of steering currents aloft. A broad high-pressure ridge parked over the southwestern United States continues to act as an overhead shield for our coastline, preventing tropical low-pressure centers from taking direct aim at the peninsula and deflecting them into open Pacific waters, while keeping our inland desert valleys intensely hot.
At the same time, an approaching upper-level weather disturbance sliding down the California coast is beginning to tug at the outer edges of the tropical conveyor belt. This incoming low is drawing expansive bands of high-altitude clouds out of Hurricane Marie’s outer circulation and pulling them directly across peninsular skies.
Meanwhile, extraordinarily warm coastal waters throughout the Gulf of California and the Southern Baja Pacific will continue to function like a giant thermal engine, pumping boundless humidity into the atmosphere to fuel localized afternoon storm buildups over the central and southern mountain corridors.
𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐒𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦𝐬
Hurricane Marie
Hurricane Marie remains the primary weather system of interest for our coastal waters, currently centered roughly 650 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Marie has begun a steady weakening cycle, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 80 mph as an 70-knot Category 1 hurricane, moving toward the northwest at 9 mph into the open Pacific. Satellite loops reveal that the storm has lost its eye and its northwest flank is now devoid of deep thunderstorms due to dry air and stable atmospheric sinking. Forecasters expect Marie to continue running over progressively colder waters below 79°F, which will steadily spin down the cyclone into a tropical storm by Monday morning and leave it as a non-tropical remnant low well offshore by the middle of the week.
Tropical Storm Karina
Farther west, Tropical Storm Karina continues to weaken rapidly, packing 60 mph sustained winds as it drifts northwest well to the east-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Strong wind shear is already tearing the system apart, leaving its lower swirl completely exposed with thunderstorm activity fading fast. Forecasters anticipate Karina will be stripped of its remaining storms within the next 24 hours, degenerating into a dying remnant low before completely dissipating over the open ocean in two to three days.
Developing Wave Offshore Southwestern Mexico
Meanwhile, meteorologists are closely watching a broad trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. While the National Hurricane Center assigns this system only a low 10 percent chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours, it maintains a medium 60 percent likelihood of organizing into a brand-new tropical depression or named storm over the next seven days as it tracks west-northwestward parallel to the Mexican mainland.
𝐂𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭: 𝐌𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐇𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐞 𝐋𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐥𝐥
Churning deeper in the central basin, Hurricane Lowell remains an extremely dangerous Category 3 major hurricane packing destructive maximum sustained winds of 125 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft from the Air Force Reserve confirmed flight-level winds topping 130 mph and a central barometric pressure down to 943 mb earlier this morning. While Lowell is currently moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph south-southwest of Hawaii, a sharp break in the steering ridge caused by an upper-level low north of the islands is forcing the hurricane onto a faster northward and north-northeastward track over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Computer models and official consensus tracks have nudged slightly eastward, bringing Lowell’s center to within 100 nautical miles west of Kauai County and near the island of Nihoa by late Monday and early Tuesday. Because of this proximity, a Tropical Storm Warning is now officially in effect for Kauai County, including Kauai and Niihau, where residents are bracing for tropical storm-force winds, life-threatening ocean surf, coastal flooding, and rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches that could trigger flash flooding and mudslides. Lowell is forecast to maintain major hurricane strength through Monday before cooler water and increasing southwesterly wind shear finally trigger a weakening trend past midweek.
𝐄𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 & 𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬
When examining the latest supercomputer ensemble packages, forecasters can spot notable disagreements between the American GEFS and European ECMWF suites regarding the steering path of Marie’s leftover circulation and the downstream pattern. Through the first 48 hours, both global model families show very tight consensus, taking Marie along a smooth northwest track over cold water well away from land. However, sharp differences emerge once the system unravels into a shallow, low-level swirl by Tuesday and Wednesday.
The European ensemble keeps Marie’s decaying circulation tracking cleanly out to sea, carrying the remnant low northward well past 128 degrees west longitude and ensuring any low-level center stays isolated far out over the open ocean. In contrast, the American ensemble displays a broader spread, with several members peeling the sheared surface swirl eastward toward 33 to 35 degrees north latitude off the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California later in the week.
These model differences stem directly from how each computer suite calculates the strength and forward speed of the incoming Pacific weather trough dropping down the western United States. The American model digs this upper trough faster and deeper, which acts like an atmospheric siphon that tugs the weak, shallow circulation closer toward the coast. The European suite shows a flatter, faster trough that simply shreds Marie apart, carrying the upper-level cloud canopy over the peninsula while leaving the actual surface low to wash out into an open trough far at sea. Both model camps agree on the main takeaway: Marie will never approach our northern shores as an organized tropical storm, arriving strictly as a dying, non-convective remnant with surface breezes below 30 mph.
𝐄𝐱𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭
Looking ahead through the next two to three weeks, the Eastern Pacific tropical basin shows no intention of quieting down. Ocean waters across the Southern Baja Pacific and the entire Gulf of California remain simmering at peak summer temperatures, providing unlimited high-octane fuel for any tropical wave that enters our waters.
For the next few days, the stubborn high-pressure dome over the southwestern United States will continue serving as a protective barrier, keeping active storm centers curved safely away from our beaches. However, as we move deeper into September, long-range guidance hints that this desert high will gradually weaken and shift eastward across the central United States.
Once that protective dome shifts away, the steering gates across our region begin to swing wide open. A weaker ridge allows weather troughs from the north to dip deeper into our latitudes, significantly increasing the odds that future tropical systems or deep moisture plumes could be pulled straight northward along the peninsula rather than guided out to sea. With that developing tropical wave already marked for potential growth south of Mexico next week, everyone living across the southern half of the peninsula should keep their weather awareness sharp and make sure their seasonal storm supplies are organized.
𝐃𝐢𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐭 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐣𝐚 𝐏𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐚
Coastal Marine and Surf Hazards
The most immediate and dangerous impact across the peninsula over the next few days will be the relentless ocean swell radiating outward from Hurricane Marie. Even with the center of the storm hundreds of miles offshore, its expansive circulation is launching powerful, long-period southerly swell trains that are rolling directly onto our beaches.
Surfers, local panga skippers, and beachgoers along the Southern Baja Pacific, Los Cabos, and the Northern Baja Pacific must prepare for hazardous breaking surf of 6 to 10 feet on south- and southwest-facing beaches, along with punishing shorebreak and severe rip currents. Because these energetic groundswells will coincide with evening astronomical high tides reaching 6.5 to nearly 7 feet through Tuesday, low-lying coastal berms and exposed sand spits will face a serious risk of beach run-up, wave overwash, and localized tidal flooding.
Monsoonal Moisture and Thunderstorm Potential
Oppressive humidity will remain firmly locked in place across our peninsula today. Heavy evaporation off the superheated waters of the Gulf of California will keep eastern coastal communities and low-lying valleys feeling thoroughly sweltering, sticky, and muggy.
As strong afternoon sunshine heats the land, this trapped tropical moisture will build into towering thunderheads over the interior mountain crests. Scattered showers and localized thunderstorms are expected to develop over the ridges and foothill valleys around Ciudad Constitución, Loreto, La Paz, Todos Santos, and Cabo San Lucas, capable of dropping sudden downpours, reducing visibility, and kicking up gusty mountain winds.
Further north, while the desert high suppresses heavy mountain rain, the approaching upper disturbance will pull high clouds and elevated tropical moisture into the Northern Baja Pacific, creating a slight chance for passing light sprinkles and high humidity through Sunday evening.
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