10/12/2025
Selling the Silver: 5 Reasons Kenya's Safaricom Stake Sale Is a Short-Sighted Move 🇰🇪
Kenya’s recent deal to sell a 15% stake in Safaricom to Vodacom for a majority shareholding has sparked intense debate. While the government cites a price premium and fiscal needs, many Kenyans feel this move sacrifices long-term national prosperity for short-term cash. Here’s why the sale is being questioned.
📉 1. We’re Selling a Growing Asset at a Discount
Safaricom is not a struggling company;it’s a powerhouse entering its strongest growth phase. Its half-year profits recently jumped by 52-192%, driven by a booming M-Pesa and a rapidly improving Ethiopian operation poised to break even. Analysts project earnings could surge to KSh 150 billion in FY26. Despite this, an investment bank analysis suggests the government's sale price of Ksh 34 per share is below the estimated fair value of Ksh 40.19, potentially leaving Ksh 37.1 billion on the table.
đźš« 2. Kenyans Were Locked Out of Their Own Asset
This historic transaction was aprivate deal, shutting out Kenyan retail investors, SACCOs, and pension funds. Unlike past public offerings that allowed citizens to own a piece of national champions, this deal was negotiated behind closed doors. It means the wealth from Kenya’s most reliable dividend stock is being further concentrated away from the public, missing a key opportunity for broad-based economic participation.
⚖️ 3. Surrendering Strategic Control & Sovereignty
The sale reduces the government’s stake from 35%to 20%, handing Vodacom a clear 55% majority control. This shifts Safaricom from a state-influenced national champion to a foreign-led operator. While the state retains some board seats, the formal loss of a blocking minority stake weakens its influence over strategic decisions on dividends, investment, and the future of critical services like M-Pesa.
đź’¸ 4. Trading Future Income for a One-Time Cash Fix
The government isn’t just selling shares;it’s also receiving an upfront payment for the future dividend rights on its remaining 20% stake. Estimates suggest the state is discounting these future cash flows by approximately Ksh 15.5 billion to get immediate cash. This swaps a predictable, long-term revenue stream that supports the national budget for a one-off payment, a move often criticized as fiscally short-sighted.
🌱 5. Undervaluing the "True Value" Beyond Profits
Safaricom’s worth isn’t just in its financial statements.Its latest report shows it created a "True Value" of Ksh 1.1 trillion—16 times its financial profit—by contributing Ksh 809 billion to GDP, driving financial inclusion, restoring ecosystems, and supporting communities. Selling a controlling stake risks prioritizing foreign shareholder returns over this embedded social and economic purpose that has been core to Kenya’s digital transformation.
This sale represents a fundamental choice: immediate fiscal relief versus enduring national equity and strategic influence. The crucial question now is whether the $1.88 billion proceeds will be invested so wisely that future generations agree it was worth the cost.
What’s your take on this deal? Share your thoughts below. 👇
