12/06/2026
伊朗衝突或許推高咗油價,但並唔能夠因此而拯救俄羅斯經濟。貨幣升值以及對石油公司同提煉廠嘅補貼已經抵消咗大部分嘅意外之財。
2026年頭四個月,俄羅斯嘅預算赤字達到 5.9 兆盧布(約 6,390 億港幣),遠超全年預算目標嘅3.8兆盧布(約 4,200 億港幣)。自 1 月以嚟 ,俄羅斯已經有超過20萬家企業倒閉。利率居高不下。自從俄羅斯全面入侵烏克蘭以嚟,企業債務幾乎上升一倍。勞動力持續短缺,稅務負擔不斷增加,國內經濟需求持續下降。
歐盟嘅制裁措施目前已經有 20 輪,喺科技、金融、物流同能源市場限制俄羅斯嘅參與,令俄羅斯需要付出長期嘅結構代價。油價上漲為俄羅斯提供咗短期嘅喘息空間,但係並唔能夠修復結構上嘅損害。壓力會繼續存在。
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Oil prices may have risen because of the Iran conflict, but they will not save Russia's economy. Windfall gains were significantly offset by a stronger currency and subsidy payments to oil companies and refiners.
In the first four months of 2026, Russia's budget deficit reached 5.9 trillion roubles (HK$639 billion), already far above the 3.8 trillion (HK$420 billion) planned for the whole year. More than 200,000 businesses have closed since January. Interest rates remain high. Corporate debt has nearly doubled since the full-scale invasion. Labour shortages are persistent, taxes are rising, and domestic demand is falling.
EU sanctions, now 20 packages in force, continue to restrict Russia's access to technology, finance, logistics and energy markets, imposing long-term structural costs. Higher oil prices give Russia short-term breathing space. They do not fix the structural damage. The pressure continues.