15/08/2017
Winter 2017-18 EU prospects;
Expected teleconnection drivers include;
1. Low and declining solar
2. eQBO (upper winds Equatorial)
3. Pacific sea temp anomalies (PDO)
4. Atlantic sea temp anomalies (AMO)
5. Neutral ENSO
6. Arctic sea ice and Sibera snow advance (SAI) may have greater impact early winter
Given the expected status of some or indeed all of these can give us an idea of the sort of winter we might get.
In my opinion we are looking at a relatively cold European winter (DJF) overall, say 2 cold months and 1 mild. Trying to get the individual monthly bias is difficult, but I think we are likely to get a 'split' SSW event which will bring a 4 to 6 week cold period Jan and Feb, characterised by sharp or severe frosts, ice and occasional snow episodes. Closest analogue is 2005-6.
I don't think we'll get a winter as extreme as say 2009-10, which was cold all 3 winter months.
At the moment I'm on the other side of the fence to many seasonal models, especially the CFS. Although the August update of the ECMWF certainly moved cooler, though still mild overall.
With 2019-20 potentially looking a severely cold winter. You heard it here first !
