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EUISS is the EU's agency analysing foreign, security and defence policy issues.

27/10/2026

🇧🇷 Can Lula's surprise electoral win open new prospects for EU-Brazil relations?

While his victory offers the EU an opportunity to strengthen ties with a key strategic partner, Brazil's domestic challenges, political and trade tensions with Washington, and close relations with China and Russia will continue to shape Brasília's foreign policy.

In his new Commentary, Giuseppe Spatafora examines how Europe can seize this opportunity to advance trade, security and industrial cooperation, while helping Brazil navigate domestic challenges and complex international partnerships.

🔗 Read the full analysis on our website: https://iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/lulas-comeback-what-outlook-brazil-europe-relations

26/10/2026

🇷🇸 Serbia has voted for change. But will a change of government translate into a new foreign-policy direction?

While the Student List's electoral victory signals a clear demand for change at home, its implications for Serbia's foreign policy remain uncertain.

Democratic reforms under a new government could pave the way for renewed engagement with the EU, but an immediate geopolitical realignment remains unlikely.

🔗 Bojana Zorić examines what Serbia's elections mean for its relationship with Europe: https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/serbia-after-vote-back-fundamentals

23/10/2026

Europe faces its bleakest energy outlook since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

With winter approaching, it must prepare for both tight oil and gas markets, and the growing threat of Russian hybrid attacks on its energy infrastructure.

Caspar Hobhouse explains how: https://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/commentary/dark-clouds-ahead-energy-outlooks-winter

21/10/2026

📣 Join the biggest EU foresight conference online on 3 November!

The 2026 ESPAS Annual Conference will bring together leading political figures, policymakers, foresight experts, think tanks, and civil society to discuss how Europe can navigate the challenges ahead.

High-level debates will focus on:

✔ Security and defence - Who could the European Union’s key global partners be on security by 2040? What new defence and security challenges could the EU face by 2040?

✔ Energy and climate - How can Europe strengthen its energy resilience and reduce external dependencies by 2040? What role will electrification and clean energy play in Europe’s future security?

✔ Technology and economy - What level of technological sovereignty is feasible for the EUN? How can Europe reduce critical dependencies while keeping markets open?

✔ Societal resilience - How do we build more resilient and cohesive societies?

🗓️ Thursday 3 November
📍 Webstreaming & programme: https://espas.eu/home.html

20/10/2026

The EU should act now to prevent Serbia from following Georgia's path.

Blurred boundaries between the state and ruling party, pressure on judicial institutions, intimidation of journalists and civil society, accusations that protests are foreign-backed: Serbia echoes warning signs of democratic erosion already seen in Georgia.

But unlike Georgia, where state capture is much more advanced, the EU still has leverage in Serbia.

Bojana Zoric and Tefta Kelmendi argue that Brussels should use this leverage before democratic decline becomes entrenched.

➡️ Weakened institutions and concentrated power create vulnerabilities that external actors can exploit. The EU should integrate democratic resilience of enlargement partners into its broader security strategy.

➡️ Reward democratic progress with faster integration to EU programmes and parts of the Single Market.

➡️ Respond to backsliding with targeted measures such as individual visa bans, frozen financial assistance or suspended preferential tariffs.

➡️ Detect early signs of state capture by looking beyond traditional rule-of-law indicators, including at party financing, informal influence networks and partisan use of state resources.

Read the Brief (Link in the comments)

19/10/2026

Ukraine launched one of its largest drone attacks against Russia yesterday.

Kyiv's increasingly frequent long-range strikes are raising the costs of Moscow's war, explains Ondrej Ditrych.

Now is the time to increase pressure on Russia and empower Ukraine.

Europe can do more, even without major new funding.
We set out concrete proposals to spend smarter and support harder.

Link in the comment

16/10/2026

What will the US midterm elections mean for Europe?

With the elections just weeks away, Democrats are well positioned to regain control of the House of Representatives, and the Senate is also in play. But how much would that actually change for Europe?

Together with the Irish Presidency of the Council of the EU, we brought together experts from both sides of the Atlantic to examine the electoral outlook and its implications for transatlantic relations.

3️⃣ takeaways from the discussion:

🇺🇸 The elections are largely about Trump and the cost of living.
🇪🇺 A Democratic victory would not necessarily reset transatlantic relations.
🌍 Domestic pressure could make US foreign policy even more unpredictable.

So what should Europe do?

Despite the enduring unpredictability, Europeans cannot afford to fully break ties with the US. They should combine strategies for facilitating cooperation with Washington, with more effective measures to counter coercion, argues Giuseppe Spatafora.

Thank you to Ambassador Luke Feeney, Bruce Stokes, Suzanne Lynch and our own Giuseppe Spatafora for their contributions, and to the Irish Presidency for partnering with us on this timely discussion.

15/10/2026

Since March 2026, the EU has spent an additional €100 billion on oil and gas without securing a single extra molecule.

As energy prices dominate today's European Council meeting, Caspar Hobhouse argues that financial support should do more than provide immediate price relief. It should also help reduce Europe's dependence on imported fossil fuels.

That means accelerating the electrification of transport, industry and domestic heating.

At the same time, Europe must strengthen its energy infrastructure against Russian threats.

How Europe should prepare for the winter ahead: Link in the comments

14/10/2026

Half baked or step by step: rethinking EU enlargement

While enlargement is back at the centre of European security policy, the question of how to do it is far from settled.

We were proud to partner with the Warsaw Security Forum for a high-level panel on rethinking EU enlargement, moderated by EUISS Director Steven Everts.

The discussion focused on how to accelerate enlargement, overcome political obstacles and maintain public support.

🎤 Four perspectives from the panel:

Montenegro's President Jakov Milatović: "Gradual integration must be a bridge to full membership, never a substitute for it."

Montenegro aims to become the EU's 28th member by 2028. Its accession, he argued, would demonstrate that Europe's transformative power is still alive. But candidate countries that deliver on reforms must be able to trust that the EU will also deliver on its promises.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan stressed that in his country, the conversation about EU membership has only just begun. Neither Armenia nor the EU knows where it will lead. Armenia is deepening its ties with the EU while managing the geopolitical implications of closer EU ties, including for its relations with Russia.

Romanian Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Țoiu: "There is a limit to how much fear can work." Security and geopolitical arguments alone may not win public support for enlargement. They compete with citizens' concerns about energy bills, jobs and their children's future. The economic opportunities of EU membership must also be part of the argument.

On EU's readiness for enlargement, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned that Member States spend too much energy competing with one another instead of building a stronger Europe. Reforming EU decision-making rules alone will not be enough without political will, leadership and a shared sense of purpose.

Watch the full discussion: https://www.youtube.com/live/xundt8_5quo

12/10/2026

Georgia shows what happens when the EU acts too late to respond to democratic backsliding. Is Serbia heading down the same path?

Bojana Zoric and Tefta Kelmendi examine the parallels between the two countries, and argue the EU needs to act before it loses it leverage, to prevent Serbia's from following Georgia's trajectory.

Link in the comments

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