06/10/2026
🚨 EVERYONE THINKS WARSH IS HAWKISH.
We don’t.
The consensus view is simple:
➡️ Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed.
➡️ Inflation remains above target.
➡️ Rate cuts get pushed further out.
➡️ Higher for longer.
That’s not our view.
At IOTAF, we believe the market is misreading Warsh.
While his rhetoric sounds hawkish and he has been highly critical of the Fed’s inflation mistakes, we believe he is more focused on fixing the structure of monetary policy and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet than keeping rates elevated indefinitely.
In fact, our contrarian view is that:
🟢 Warsh cuts rates in 2026.
Yes, cuts.
A view that is currently well outside consensus.
Why?
• The labour market is gradually weakening.
• Growth is slowing beneath the surface.
• The Fed’s balance sheet can do more of the tightening heavy lifting.
• Political pressure will be immense if the economy softens.
• We believe Warsh ultimately wants lower rates and a smaller balance sheet, not necessarily tighter overall financial conditions.
The market currently sees a hawkish Fed Chair.
We see a future Fed Chair who may surprise investors by cutting sooner than expected.
Time will tell.
👇 What do you think?
🦅 Warsh = Higher for Longer
🕊️ Warsh = Rate Cuts in 2026
Comment below.
⚠️ IOTAF Opinion Only. This is not investment advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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