07/08/2026
๐ฆ๐ง๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง ๐ง๐ข ๐ฃ๐๐ฅ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ง
๐๐ฌ: ๐๐ข๐ก. ๐ช๐ฌ๐ก๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ข๐๐ฃ๐จ๐ฆ๐ข ๐ ๐ ๐ข๐๐ข๐ง๐ฆ๐
๐ ๐๐ก๐๐ฆ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ข๐ ๐๐ก๐ฉ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐ก๐ ๐๐ก๐ง ๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐
๐ข๐ก ๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ฃ๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ ๐ก๐๐ก๐ข ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐๐ก๐ ๐ง๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ๐น๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ณ ๐ฅ๐๐๐ก_๐๐๐๐ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ก
๐ณ ๐๐จ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ง ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฒ
๐ญ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, I wish to present to this August House information on the expected El Nino conditions during the 2026/2027 rainfall season, potential impacts on various economic sectors, and suggested mitigation and response measures with the aim to cushion the economy of Botswana.
๐ฎ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, information and advisories on El Nino have been issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and other Global Modelling Centres, including the Southern African Development Community Climate Services Centre (SADC-CSC) and the African Centre of Meteorological Applications (ACMAD). As a response to this, the African Union Commission convened the African Continental Climate Forum on 30 July 2026, where members were urged to proactively put in place early warning systems in preparation for El Nino impacts likely to cause between US$10 billion and US$20 billion in economic damages across the African continent.
๐ฏ. El Nino conditions are present and are expected to strengthen through the Southern Hemisphere summer 2026-27, particularly from October 2026 to January 2027.
During an El Nino event, sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become unusually warm, and trade winds weaken. El Nino typically has a warming effect on global temperatures, with the strongest influence often felt in the year after it develops. It is commonly associated with reduced rainfall, leading to drought and extremely high temperatures in Botswana and parts of Southern Africa. Official models indicate a more than 90% probability that a very strong El Nino will dominate Botswana's upcoming rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027. El Nino is historically associated with dry, hot conditions in Botswana.
๐ฐ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, it is important to highlight that the El Nino phenomena is not the climate driver, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), also influences weather in Southern Africa. A negative IOD is associated with a good, wet season, while a positive IOD is associated with dry, conditions. The IOD is currently in the neutral phase, models predict a potential shift towards a positive IOD later in the year, which could bring reduced rainfall, a delayed onset of the seasonal rains and higher temperatures to Botswana and most part the of Southern Africa
region. The IOD will likely reinforce the El Nino-driven drying signal for Botswana.
๐ฑ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, El Nino has occurred in the past. We may recall the 1982/1983 and 1991/1992 cycles, which led to drastic reductions in traditional grain harvests, necessitating state-funded food relief. The 2015/2016 cycle brought record-breaking heatwaves and high temperatures, as well as the worst regional drought in decades. Maun recorded a historic peak of 44.0ยฐC in January 2016. The southwest experienced intense desert heatwave conditions, with Tsabong reaching 43.5ยฐC and Werda 43.3ยฐC. Gaborone also reached a record high of 43.9ยฐC. Gaborone Dam levels dropped below 20% capacity, prompting severe water rationing. The 2023/2024 Cycle was declared an extreme agricultural drought year. These occurrences led to severe budgetary strain from urgent adjustments in national spending, agricultural losses where major crops such as maize permanently wilted, severe rangeland degradation that directly contributed to thousands of cattle and wildlife deaths, and the drying of crucial seasonal rivers, catchments, and dams.
๐ฒ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, our country is a semi-arid, drought-prone nation heavily reliant on rain-fed seasonal farming. Therefore, the onset of an El Nino poses an immediate threat to Botswana's rainfall consistency, agricultural stability, and national water security. The following are expected impacts on various economic sectors:
๐ฎ) ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ด๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐๐น๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป (๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐): The El Nino phase is projected to delay the onset of seasonal rainfall and trigger prolonged mid-season dry spells. This environment drastically threatens domestic yields for staple grains like maize and sorghum (mabele).
๐ฏ) ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐: compounded by elevated regional temperatures, high evaporation rates are expected to place intense structural pressure on major national dams, pipelines, and communal watering points.
๐ฐ) ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐๐๐ผ๐ฐ๐ธ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ: Rapidly deteriorating rangelands and shrinking natural water pools present an immediate threat to the national herd, risking localised livestock mortalities.
Reduced grazing land and shrinking water sources will worsen cattle body conditions and mortality.
๐ฑ) ๐๐ป๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐น๐ถ๐ณ๐ฒ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐: El Nino exacerbates the risk of dehydration among wild fauna. The drying of water sources and the withering of grazing lands may contribute to mass mortalities. Fisheries are similarly affected due to the drying of water bodies. This phenomenon disrupts entire ecosystems, resulting in starvation, disease outbreaks, and habitat destruction. Extreme resource scarcity associated with the El Nino is likely to force wildlife resources to wander out of protected areas into human settlements, leading to increased human-wildlife conflicts (HWC).
๐ฒ) ๐ช๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐น๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐: Due to exceptionally high fuel loads following good rains during the previous season, there is an increased risk of the spread of high-intensity, fast-moving wildland fires across rangelands, forests, protected areas and communal grazing lands. This threatens communities, biodiversity, tourism infrastructure and livelihoods.
๐ณ) ๐ฃ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น๐๐ต ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐: High-intensity heatwaves are projected across all districts, increasing health risks for outdoor workers, the elderly, and vulnerable rural populations.
๐ณ. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, as a response, the public is urged to consider the following immediate action:
๐ถ. ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐บ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐: The Ministry of Lands and Agriculture to strongly urge the immediate adoption of climate-smart techniques by farmers, including the use of drought-tolerant crop seeds, calculating early livestock feed supplementation, and considering destocking.
๐ถ๐ถ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ผ๐ฟ: Authorities must maximise water conservation enforcement and closely monitor regional reservoir drawdowns to avoid emergency supply failures. Also promote rainwater harvesting.
๐ถ๐ถ๐ถ. ๐ช๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐น๐ถ๐ณ๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐๐ผ๐๐ฟ๐ฐ๐ฒ๐: The wildlife sector should adopt climate-smart landscape management. Wildlife authorities, conservation groups, and safari operators can safeguard biodiversity by maintaining water points and drilling boreholes to reduce pressure on existing ones.
๐ถ๐. ๐๐ฒ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฝ๐๐ฏ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ: Citizens nationwide must follow heatwave safety precautions, minimise unnecessary direct sun exposure during peak hours, and practice strict domestic water budgeting. Citizens can also prevent devastating wildland fires by practising safe fire handling, creating firebreaks, and reporting outbreaks immediately.
๐ด. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, the Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET), through the Department of Meteorological Services (DMS), continues to engage the public and climate-sensitive sectors of the economy on the potential effects of the current El Nino during the upcoming rainfall season. This engagement occurs through various platforms, including social media, radio and television interviews, print media, multi-sectoral and stakeholder meetings, and Local Authorities and NGOs.
๐ต. ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ, I wish to conclude by informing this Honourable House that the Ministry will issue an official rainfall and temperature outlook for the upcoming rainfall season in early September 2026, following analysis of the effects of the current El Nino and other climate drivers affecting our region.
At this stage, only an advisory has been issued as an early warning to raise public awareness of the issue.
๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ธ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ ๐ฟ. ๐ฆ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ฟ.
