03/30/2026
๐ฃ Come join us tonight at this monthโs school board meeting.
There are some important trends and decisions in this packet that deserve attentionโand community voices matter.
๐ข Whatโs in the Packet:
๐๐ง๐ซ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฎ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐๐ฌ (๐๐ฅ๐๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐ง, ๐ฌ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฉ)
$31.8M proposed tax levy
58% Management Fund increase
Facilities projects (HVAC, playgrounds)
Routine financial and board business
๐ Enrollment Trend (This is important):
Weโre not just seeing a small fluctuationโฆ there is a clear downward trend:
๐ March 2025
โข Total Students: 3,561
โข Monthly Change: โ3
๐ March 2026
โข Total Students: 3,501
โข Monthly Change: โ9
๐ Year-over-Year Change: โ60 students
๐ Monthly decline is increasing (โ3 โ โ9)
โ ๏ธ This matters because:
Elementary enrollment is driving the decline
Funding follows students
Todayโs elementary drop = tomorrowโs middle & high school impact
Growth depends on ~1,400 near-term housing units
But the demographer also warned:
๐๐ข๐ฆ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ฌ
๐ This is where accuracy slips in real time:
If homes are delayed โ students arrive later
If buyers skew older โ fewer kids per home
The key disconnect (this is the takeaway):
On paper: โHundreds of lots / strong developmentโ
In reality:
~6โ10 actual new-home buyers/month (as of February 2026)
~1โ4 students/month (estimated based on past projections)
๐ That gap is exactly where the demographerโs projections can drift
๐ง Why this matters:
The district appears to be planning for future growthโbut enrollment is declining today.
๐ The key questions citizens can ask are:
How do the demographer's projection models adjust for changes in affordabilityโsuch as higher interest rates, increasing inflation, increasing unemployment rates and increasing debt burdensโthat may affect who can actually move into new housing? (The demographer's answers about their models and algorithms may surprise you.)
In an increasingly competitive environment with school choice and vouchers, what is the districtโs strategy to actively attract and retain families like private schools are doing, and who is primarily responsible for doing it?
๐
School Board Meeting
March 30th, 2026 โ 5:30pm
๐ฌ Strong communities ask strong questions.