28/10/2022
Tropical Storm "Paeng"
Issued at 08:00 pm, 28 October 2022
“PAENG” CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ALBAY-SORSOGON AREA
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Tonight through tomorrow early morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Quezon, MIMAROPA, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, Northern Mindanao, and the rest of Visayas. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cagayan Valley, Aurora, the rest of CALABARZON, and the rest of Mindanao.
Tomorrow early morning through Sunday morning: Heavy to torrential rains likely over Aurora, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, CALABARZON, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas, and the rest of Central Luzon and Bicol Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Zamboanga Peninsula and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
Heavy rain areas may be updated in the succeeding bulletins should there be significant shifts in the track and intensity forecast of PAENG.
Severe Winds
Winds may reach gale-force strength during the passage of PAENG within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds may be experienced within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 is hoisted throughout the entire passage of PAENG.
Per latest track and intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will likely be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 3 in anticipation of storm-force conditions associated with PAENG.
The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Bicol Region, Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, the eastern portion of Aurora, the northern and eastern portions of Northern Samar, and the eastern portion of Eastern Samar. For more information refer to Storm Surge Watch #3 issued at 8:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and PAENG, a marine gale warning is in effect over the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the eastern and southern seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #11 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to continue moving west northwestward through Sunday. On the forecast track the center of PAENG may make its initial landfall in the vicinity of Albay or Sorsgon this late evening or tomorrow early morning and traverse the Bicol Peninsula before emerging over the coastal waters of Quezon. Between tomorrow afternoon and evening, the center of PAENG may make another landfall over the east coast of Quezon. Considering the southward shift in the forecast track, the landfall scenario may change in the succeeding bulletins.
PAENG is forecast to further intensify while moving over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category within 12 hours.
Location of Eye/center
The center of Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Guiuan Doppler Weather Radar at 100 km East Northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 165 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (12.8 °N, 125.5 °E )
