Coalition of Grassroot Mobilizers, CGM

20/07/2025

Press Statement
For Immediate Release
July 19, 2025

It’s Too Late: You Cannot Buy the North with Token Appointments

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has described the recent announcement of appointments by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as a “desperate, cynical attempt to buy back the trust that he has spent over a year squandering, particularly in Northern Nigeria.”
In a statement signed by the party’s National Publicity Secretary, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC dismissed the so-called appointments as “too little, too late,” adding that “you cannot marginalise a region for over twenty-five months and expect applause because you suddenly remembered on the twenty-sixth month that Nigeria is bigger than Lagos State

According to the ADC, these appointments are nothing more than “political panic management,” a frantic attempt to bandage the gaping wounds inflicted on Northern Nigeria by over a year of calculated neglect, presidential arrogance and unprecedented nepotism.
“For over a year, this government turned a blind eye as bandits terrorised villages in the north, as our farmers abandoned their land, and as rural economies crumbled under the weight of poorly thought-out fuel subsidy removal,” Abdullahi said. “Now, under the rising heat of public discontent, and with the emergence of a formidable opposition coalition gaining traction in the North and across the country, President Tinubu suddenly remembers that there are Nigerians to appoint into positions outside his Lagos.”
“Every major decision of this administration, from subsidy removal to a majority of the political appointments, have been taken without the North at the table. Now that the consequences of those decisions have become glaring, the President is doling out appointments as consolation prizes. But Northerners as co-owners of our great federal republic know better than to be deceived by these token appointments. They see through President Tinubu’s actions — and can sense that this is not genuine. Tokenism is not inclusion, and symbolism is not governance,” the ADC spokesperson said.

The ADC concluded by urging the Tinubu administration to abandon what it described as “Bourdillon-style appeasement politics,” and embrace real national inclusion through consultation, policy equity, and sincere federal character.
“You cannot patch a broken roof with press releases and photo-ops. And you certainly cannot restore the trust that you have lost with the public by pretending that titles are a substitute for genuine commitment to nation-building.”

Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi
National Publicity Secretary
African Democratic Congress (ADC)

16/07/2025

July 13, 2025

Press Statement

PDP Mourns Immediate Past President Muhammadu Buhari’s Death

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) received with deep sadness the news of the death of immediate past President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, His Excellency, President Muhammadu Buhari GCFR in a hospital in London, United Kingdom.

Former President Buhari was a courageous leader and highly disciplined military officer who dedicated his life towards the service of the nation.

The departed former President will be remembered by Nigerians for his roles and policies in government as Governor of Borno State, Federal Commissioner for Petroleum and Natural Resources, Chairman of the defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF), Military Head of State and later as democratically elected President.

The PDP commiserates with late President Buhari’s widow, Hajia Aisha Buhari and the entire Buhari family; the Federal Government, the Nigeria Army, the government and people of Katsina State and the Daura Emirate for this national loss and prays to the Almighty Allah to forgive his shortcomings and grant him eternal repose.

Signed:

Hon. Debo Ologunagba
National Publicity Secretary

16/07/2025

ADC Press Statement
For Immediate Release
July 13, 2025

Welcome Back, Mr. President – But Where Have You Been?

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has challenged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to tell Nigerians where he has been for five days since the end of the BRICS Summit in Brazil.
The President, who returned in the early hours of Sunday, had been missing from public view since the end of the Summit in Brazil without any official explanation as to his whereabouts.

The full statement read:

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) extends a weary welcome to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for finally returning to the country five days after the end of the 2025 BRICS Summit which held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Since the summit ended on Monday, July 7th, all the other world leaders who were in attendance returned home, briefed their citizens, and got back to work. But our President? He only reappeared in Abuja in the early hours of Sunday, July 13—without a word, without a briefing, or any explanation as to why his return to the country had been delayed.

A whole five days is significant in the life of a country, especially a country like ours battling with several existential challenges of insecurity and a tottering economy that has made life increasingly difficult for the majority of Nigerians. The President was not on holidays, he was on official duty. We therefore cannot wish those five days away and we demand a clear explanation for them.

The ADC also notes with concern that this disdain for accountability around the President’s overseas trip has become a distinct hallmark of this administration.

In January 2024, a so-called “private visit” to France turned into a two-week disappearance. No photos, and no statements from our President.

In April 2024, President Tinubu travelled to the Netherlands, and then to Riyadh, for the World Economic Forum. The summit ended on April 29th, 2024, but there was not a word from him until May 8th, 2024. Those were nine days of unexplained vacuum.

In August 2024, President Tinubu flew to China via Dubai. After his engagements in Beijing, he vanished from public view on September 5th, and mysteriously surfaced in London on September 11th. He was missing for six days—no explanations, no letter transmitted to the National Assembly, just silence.

And in the same August 2024, the President also embarked on yet another “brief work stay” in Paris. He remained incommunicado for three days, then quietly returned, as if the nation does not deserve to know.

Each episode of Mr. President’s mysterious disappearances has sparked all manners of speculations and rumours that are not only unhealthy to the polity, but also endangers Nigeria’s perception in the eyes of the world.

We urge Nigerians to take note. A president that disappears without explanation cannot be trusted to be present to solve the crises that we face. A President that vanishes without accountability has no moral authority to demand sacrifice from citizens. Most importantly, a ruling party that makes excuses for these serial disappearances has nothing but contempt for the people it governs and has no regard for accountability.

Signed:

Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi
Interim National Publicity Secretary
African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Spokesman of the Coalition

ADC Press Statement
For Immediate Release
July 13, 2025

Welcome Back, Mr. President – But Where Have You Been?

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has challenged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to tell Nigerians where he has been for five days since the end of the BRICS Summit in Brazil.
The President, who returned in the early hours of Sunday, had been missing from public view since the end of the Summit in Brazil without any official explanation as to his whereabouts.

The full statement read:

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) extends a weary welcome to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu for finally returning to the country five days after the end of the 2025 BRICS Summit which held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Since the summit ended on Monday, July 7th, all the other world leaders who were in attendance returned home, briefed their citizens, and got back to work. But our President? He only reappeared in Abuja in the early hours of Sunday, July 13—without a word, without a briefing, or any explanation as to why his return to the country had been delayed.

A whole five days is significant in the life of a country, especially a country like ours battling with several existential challenges of insecurity and a tottering economy that has made life increasingly difficult for the majority of Nigerians. The President was not on holidays, he was on official duty. We therefore cannot wish those five days away and we demand a clear explanation for them.

The ADC also notes with concern that this disdain for accountability around the President’s overseas trip has become a distinct hallmark of this administration.

In January 2024, a so-called “private visit” to France turned into a two-week disappearance. No photos, and no statements from our President.

In April 2024, President Tinubu travelled to the Netherlands, and then to Riyadh, for the World Economic Forum. The summit ended on April 29th, 2024, but there was not a word from him until May 8th, 2024. Those were nine days of unexplained vacuum.

In August 2024, President Tinubu flew to China via Dubai. After his engagements in Beijing, he vanished from public view on September 5th, and mysteriously surfaced in London on September 11th. He was missing for six days—no explanations, no letter transmitted to the National Assembly, just silence.

And in the same August 2024, the President also embarked on yet another “brief work stay” in Paris. He remained incommunicado for three days, then quietly returned, as if the nation does not deserve to know.

Each episode of Mr. President’s mysterious disappearances has sparked all manners of speculations and rumours that are not only unhealthy to the polity, but also endangers Nigeria’s perception in the eyes of the world.

We urge Nigerians to take note. A president that disappears without explanation cannot be trusted to be present to solve the crises that we face. A President that vanishes without accountability has no moral authority to demand sacrifice from citizens. Most importantly, a ruling party that makes excuses for these serial disappearances has nothing but contempt for the people it governs and has no regard for accountability.

Signed:

Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi
Interim National Publicity Secretary
African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Spokesman of the Coalition.

16/07/2025

RESULTS OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SPREAD OF VOTES ACROSS STATES AND 2027 PETMUTATION WITH COALITION

ABIA:
Tinubu (APC): 8,914
Atiku (PDP): 22,676
Obi (LP): 327,095
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

ADAMAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 182,881
Atiku (PDP): 417,611
Obi (LP): 195,648
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

AKWA IBOM:
Tinubu (APC): 160,620
Atiku (PDP): 214,012
Obi (LP): 132,683
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ANAMBRA:
Tinubu (APC): 5,111
Atiku (PDP): 9,036
Obi (LP): 584,621
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

BAUCHI:
Tinubu (APC): 316,694
Atiku (PDP): 426,607
Obi (LP): 27,373
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

BAYELSA:
Tinubu (APC): 42,572
Atiku (PDP): 68,818
Obi (LP): 49,975
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

BENUE:
Tinubu (APC): 310,468
Atiku (PDP): 130,081
Obi (LP): 308,372
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

BORNO:
Tinubu (APC): 252,282
Atiku (PDP): 190,921
Obi (LP): 7,205
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027 if he retains Shettima as running mate

CROSS RIVER:
Tinubu (APC): 130,520
Atiku (PDP): 95,425
Obi (LP): 179,917
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027.

DELTA:
Tinubu (APC): 90,183
Atiku (PDP): 161,600
Obi (LP): 341,866
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

EBONYI:
Tinubu (APC): 42,402
Atiku (PDP): 13,503
Obi (LP): 259,738
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

EDO:
Tinubu (APC): 144,471
Atiku (PDP): 89,585
Obi (LP): 331,163
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

EKITI:
Tinubu (APC): 201,494
Atiku (PDP): 89,554
Obi (LP): 11,397
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ENUGU:
Tinubu (APC): 4,772
Atiku (PDP): 15,749
Obi (LP): 428,640
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

FCT:
Tinubu (APC): 90,902
Atiku (PDP): 74,194
Obi (LP): 281,717
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

GOMBE:
Tinubu (APC): 146,977
Atiku (PDP): 319,123
Obi (LP): 26,160
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

IMO:
Tinubu (APC): 66,406
Atiku (PDP): 30,234
Obi (LP): 360,495
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

JIGAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 421,390
Atiku (PDP): 386,587
Obi (LP): 1,889
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KADUNA:
Tinubu (APC): 399,293
Atiku (PDP): 554,360
Obi (LP): 294,494
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KANO:
Kwankwaso (NNPP): 997,279
Tinubu (APC): 517,341
Atiku (PDP): 131,716
Obi (LP): 28,513
PROJECTION: Tinubu will win it in 2027 under a collabo with Kwankwaso who has no political party at the moment.

KATSINA:
Tinubu (APC): 482,283
Atiku (PDP): 489, 045
Obi (LP): 6,376
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

KEBBI:
Tinubu (APC): 248,088
Atiku (PDP): 285,175
Obi (LP): 10,682
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

KOGI:
Tinubu (APC): 240,751
Atiku (PDP): 145, 104
Obi (LP): 56, 217
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KWARA:
Tinubu (APC): 263,572
Atiku (PDP): 136,909
Obi (LP): 31,166
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

LAGOS:
Tinubu (APC): 572,606
Atiku (PDP): 75,750
Obi (LP): 582,454
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

NASSARAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 172,922
Atiku (PDP): 147,093
Obi (LP): 191,361
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

NIGER:
Tinubu (APC):375,183
Atiku (PDP): 284,898
Obi (LP): 80,452
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

OGUN:
Tinubu (APC): 341,554
Atiku (PDP): 123,831
Obi (LP): 85,829
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ONDO:
Tinubu (APC): 369,924
Atiku (PDP): 115,463
Obi (LP): 44,405
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

OSUN:
Tinubu (APC): 343,945
Atiku (PDP): 354,366
Obi (LP): 23,283
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

OYO:
Tinubu (APC): 449,884
Atiku (PDP): 182,977
Obi (LP): 99,110
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

PLATEAU:
Tinubu (APC): 307,195
Atiku (PDP): 243,808
Obi (LP): 466,272
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

RIVERS:
Tinubu (APC): 231,591
Atiku (PDP): 88,468
Obi (LP): 175,071
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

SOKOTO:
Tinubu (APC): 285,444
Atiku (PDP): 288,679
Obi (LP): 6,568
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

TARABA:
Tinubu (APC): 135,165
Atiku (PDP): 189,017
Obi (LP): 146,315
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

YOBE:
Tinubu (APC): 151,459
Atiku (PDP): 198,567
Obi (LP): 2,406
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

ZAMFARA:
Tinubu (APC): 298,396
Atiku (PDP): 193,978
Obi (LP): 1,660
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

Total No. of votes scored by the 4 leading candidates in the 2023 Presidential elections:
Tinubu (APC) = 8,794,726 (36.61%)
Atiku (PDP) = 6,984,520 (29.07%)
Obi (LP) = 6,101,533 (25.40%)
Kwankwaso = 1,496,687 (6.23%).

DISCUSSION OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND PROJECTIONS FOR 2027:
From the results of the 2023 Presidential elections presented above, the following observations are deduced:
1. The projected votes spread statewise in the 2027 Presidential election is as follows:
Atiku will win 17 states
Tinubu will win 14 states
Obi will win 6 states

2. NORTHERN STATES: In 2023, Atiku won 9 out of the 20 Northern states. Obi won 3 including FCT. Tinubu won 7.
In the 2027 election, Atiku is projected to win 15 Northern states
Tinubu to win 4
Obi to win 1

If a southern Presidential candidate is to be fielded by the ADC, Tinubu will win all the 9 states won by Atiku in 2023. Tinubu will actually win all the 15 Northern states projected to be taken by Atiku in 2027. Added to his 4, Tinubu will potentially win 16 Northern states in 2027 and secure a second term if he contests against any southern candidate.

2. SOUTHERN STATES: Peter Obi won 9 out of the 16 southern states while Atiku won 2. Tinubu won 6.
If a southern candidate is fielded by the ADC, he will give Tinubu a good fight in the South but the critical issue is in the total number of votes as analysed in 3 below:
Total number of votes in the 2023 Presidential election:
NORTH: Total votes 13,716,667
From this number:
Tinubu had 5,346,404 (38.9%)
Atiku had 4,834,767 (35.2%)
Obi had 2,080,847 (15.2%)

In the unlikely event that a Southern candidate is fielded by the ADC, Tinubu will secure at least 30% of the votes scored by Atiku in the 2023 Presidential election in the south. In fact, Tinubu scored more votes in the North (5,346,404) than he did in the South (3,206,969).
This means Tinubu has a good ground in the North which can only be challenged by a sting Northern ADC candidate.

SOUTH: Total votes 9,020,741.
Obi had 4,020,687 (44.5%)
Tinubu had 3,206,969 (35.5%)
Atiku had 1,751,047 (19.4%)

Although Obi won the popular votes in the South, that was not good enough to beat Tinubu as there are more votes in the North than in the South:
13,716,667 - 9,020,741 = 4,695,906 is the Difference between the votes in the North and those in the South.

This number is enough to win the election.

FINAL WORDS:
Based on our projections for the 2027 Presidential election, the 3 leading candidates will secure state votes as follows (statewise):

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
Projected votes in the 2027 Presidential election statewise.
Synopsis A:
Atiku: 17 states including the FCT.
Tinubu: 14 states
Obi: 6 states

Scenario 1:
Independent Variable: Atiku (ADC)
Dependent Variable: Tinubu (APC)

In the likely event of Atiku winning the ADC ticket in 2027, synopsis A will change to:
Atiku: 23 States including the FCT (17+6)
Tinubu: 13 states
Atiku will win the election.

Scenario 2:
Independent Variable: Obi (ADC)
Dependent Variable: Tinubu (APC)

In the unlikely event of Obi winning the ADC ticket. The states won by the APC and ADC candidates in Synopsis A will change to:
Tinubu (APC): 30 states
Obi (ADC) 6 states and FCT
Moreso, Obi will not secure the number of votes he won in the 2023 Presidential election becuse the circumstances have changed. Some of these circumstances include more state governors supporting Tinubu in 2027.

It can be observed from Scenarios 1 and 2 that Tinubu will eat so much into Northern votes if Obi is the ADC candidate in 2027 but he (Tinubu) will not be able to do that if Atiku is the candidate.

THREE HORSE RACE:
In the likely event that Obi contests on the platform of the LP, he will divide the votes as he did in the 2023 Presidential elections thus handing Tinubu victory on a platter of gold.

If Atiku is fielded by the ADC in 2027, he will secure 2/3 of the votes in 24 states and FCT as required by the 1999 constitution (as amended) to win the election.

A southern candidate cannot score 25% in 24 states to win the election as President Tinubu will win most of the Northern states to secure victory.

For Mr Peter Obi, the best route to his possible Presidency is to repeat the 2019 PDP ticket where he ran as VP to Atiku. After Atiku’s 8 years as President in 2031, it will be a fait accompli for Mr Obi to not only run for the Presidency but also win it. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that President Tinubu wins a second term, Mr Obi will probably have to wait for 12 years -2035- i.e 4 years of Tinubu and 8 years of a Northern candidate in 2035 (not through rotational Presidency though) before he could possibly have another shot at the Presidency.

The ruling APC will do anything to help Obi get the ADC ticket because it means the 2027 Presidential election will be a walk-over for President Tinubu if Obi gets the ADC ticket. In fact, President Tinubu and the APC will be happy to strike a deal with Obi for 2027. They could even promise Obi that they will handover power to him in 2031.

https://www.facebook.com/share/1G8VkQjwFZ/?mibextid=wwXIfr

RESULTS OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: SPREAD OF VOTES ACROSS STATES AND 2027 PETMUTATION WITH COALITION

ABIA:
Tinubu (APC): 8,914
Atiku (PDP): 22,676
Obi (LP): 327,095
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

ADAMAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 182,881
Atiku (PDP): 417,611
Obi (LP): 195,648
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

AKWA IBOM:
Tinubu (APC): 160,620
Atiku (PDP): 214,012
Obi (LP): 132,683
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ANAMBRA:
Tinubu (APC): 5,111
Atiku (PDP): 9,036
Obi (LP): 584,621
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

BAUCHI:
Tinubu (APC): 316,694
Atiku (PDP): 426,607
Obi (LP): 27,373
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

BAYELSA:
Tinubu (APC): 42,572
Atiku (PDP): 68,818
Obi (LP): 49,975
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

BENUE:
Tinubu (APC): 310,468
Atiku (PDP): 130,081
Obi (LP): 308,372
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

BORNO:
Tinubu (APC): 252,282
Atiku (PDP): 190,921
Obi (LP): 7,205
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027 if he retains Shettima as running mate

CROSS RIVER:
Tinubu (APC): 130,520
Atiku (PDP): 95,425
Obi (LP): 179,917
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027.

DELTA:
Tinubu (APC): 90,183
Atiku (PDP): 161,600
Obi (LP): 341,866
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

EBONYI:
Tinubu (APC): 42,402
Atiku (PDP): 13,503
Obi (LP): 259,738
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

EDO:
Tinubu (APC): 144,471
Atiku (PDP): 89,585
Obi (LP): 331,163
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

EKITI:
Tinubu (APC): 201,494
Atiku (PDP): 89,554
Obi (LP): 11,397
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ENUGU:
Tinubu (APC): 4,772
Atiku (PDP): 15,749
Obi (LP): 428,640
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

FCT:
Tinubu (APC): 90,902
Atiku (PDP): 74,194
Obi (LP): 281,717
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

GOMBE:
Tinubu (APC): 146,977
Atiku (PDP): 319,123
Obi (LP): 26,160
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

IMO:
Tinubu (APC): 66,406
Atiku (PDP): 30,234
Obi (LP): 360,495
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

JIGAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 421,390
Atiku (PDP): 386,587
Obi (LP): 1,889
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KADUNA:
Tinubu (APC): 399,293
Atiku (PDP): 554,360
Obi (LP): 294,494
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KANO:
Kwankwaso (NNPP): 997,279
Tinubu (APC): 517,341
Atiku (PDP): 131,716
Obi (LP): 28,513
PROJECTION: Tinubu will win it in 2027 under a collabo with Kwankwaso who has no political party at the moment.

KATSINA:
Tinubu (APC): 482,283
Atiku (PDP): 489, 045
Obi (LP): 6,376
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

KEBBI:
Tinubu (APC): 248,088
Atiku (PDP): 285,175
Obi (LP): 10,682
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

KOGI:
Tinubu (APC): 240,751
Atiku (PDP): 145, 104
Obi (LP): 56, 217
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

KWARA:
Tinubu (APC): 263,572
Atiku (PDP): 136,909
Obi (LP): 31,166
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

LAGOS:
Tinubu (APC): 572,606
Atiku (PDP): 75,750
Obi (LP): 582,454
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

NASSARAWA:
Tinubu (APC): 172,922
Atiku (PDP): 147,093
Obi (LP): 191,361
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

NIGER:
Tinubu (APC):375,183
Atiku (PDP): 284,898
Obi (LP): 80,452
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

OGUN:
Tinubu (APC): 341,554
Atiku (PDP): 123,831
Obi (LP): 85,829
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

ONDO:
Tinubu (APC): 369,924
Atiku (PDP): 115,463
Obi (LP): 44,405
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

OSUN:
Tinubu (APC): 343,945
Atiku (PDP): 354,366
Obi (LP): 23,283
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

OYO:
Tinubu (APC): 449,884
Atiku (PDP): 182,977
Obi (LP): 99,110
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

PLATEAU:
Tinubu (APC): 307,195
Atiku (PDP): 243,808
Obi (LP): 466,272
PROJECTION: Obi (ADC) will win it in 2027

RIVERS:
Tinubu (APC): 231,591
Atiku (PDP): 88,468
Obi (LP): 175,071
PROJECTION: Tinubu (APC) will win it in 2027

SOKOTO:
Tinubu (APC): 285,444
Atiku (PDP): 288,679
Obi (LP): 6,568
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

TARABA:
Tinubu (APC): 135,165
Atiku (PDP): 189,017
Obi (LP): 146,315
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

YOBE:
Tinubu (APC): 151,459
Atiku (PDP): 198,567
Obi (LP): 2,406
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027

ZAMFARA:
Tinubu (APC): 298,396
Atiku (PDP): 193,978
Obi (LP): 1,660
PROJECTION: Atiku (ADC) will win it in 2027.

Total No. of votes scored by the 4 leading candidates in the 2023 Presidential elections:
Tinubu (APC) = 8,794,726 (36.61%)
Atiku (PDP) = 6,984,520 (29.07%)
Obi (LP) = 6,101,533 (25.40%)
Kwankwaso = 1,496,687 (6.23%).

DISCUSSION OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS AND PROJECTIONS FOR 2027:
From the results of the 2023 Presidential elections presented above, the following observations are deduced:
1. The projected votes spread statewise in the 2027 Presidential election is as follows:
Atiku will win 17 states
Tinubu will win 14 states
Obi will win 6 states

2. NORTHERN STATES: In 2023, Atiku won 9 out of the 20 Northern states. Obi won 3 including FCT. Tinubu won 7.
In the 2027 election, Atiku is projected to win 15 Northern states
Tinubu to win 4
Obi to win 1

If a southern Presidential candidate is to be fielded by the ADC, Tinubu will win all the 9 states won by Atiku in 2023. Tinubu will actually win all the 15 Northern states projected to be taken by Atiku in 2027. Added to his 4, Tinubu will potentially win 16 Northern states in 2027 and secure a second term if he contests against any southern candidate.

2. SOUTHERN STATES: Peter Obi won 9 out of the 16 southern states while Atiku won 2. Tinubu won 6.
If a southern candidate is fielded by the ADC, he will give Tinubu a good fight in the South but the critical issue is in the total number of votes as analysed in 3 below:
Total number of votes in the 2023 Presidential election:
NORTH: Total votes 13,716,667
From this number:
Tinubu had 5,346,404 (38.9%)
Atiku had 4,834,767 (35.2%)
Obi had 2,080,847 (15.2%)

In the unlikely event that a Southern candidate is fielded by the ADC, Tinubu will secure at least 30% of the votes scored by Atiku in the 2023 Presidential election in the south. In fact, Tinubu scored more votes in the North (5,346,404) than he did in the South (3,206,969).
This means Tinubu has a good ground in the North which can only be challenged by a sting Northern ADC candidate.

SOUTH: Total votes 9,020,741.
Obi had 4,020,687 (44.5%)
Tinubu had 3,206,969 (35.5%)
Atiku had 1,751,047 (19.4%)

Although Obi won the popular votes in the South, that was not good enough to beat Tinubu as there are more votes in the North than in the South:
13,716,667 - 9,020,741 = 4,695,906 is the Difference between the votes in the North and those in the South.

This number is enough to win the election.

FINAL WORDS:
Based on our projections for the 2027 Presidential election, the 3 leading candidates will secure state votes as follows (statewise):

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS:
Projected votes in the 2027 Presidential election statewise.
Synopsis A:
Atiku: 17 states including the FCT.
Tinubu: 14 states
Obi: 6 states

Scenario 1:
Independent Variable: Atiku (ADC)
Dependent Variable: Tinubu (APC)

In the likely event of Atiku winning the ADC ticket in 2027, synopsis A will change to:
Atiku: 23 States including the FCT (17+6)
Tinubu: 13 states
Atiku will win the election.

Scenario 2:
Independent Variable: Obi (ADC)
Dependent Variable: Tinubu (APC)

In the unlikely event of Obi winning the ADC ticket. The states won by the APC and ADC candidates in Synopsis A will change to:
Tinubu (APC): 30 states
Obi (ADC) 6 states and FCT
Moreso, Obi will not secure the number of votes he won in the 2023 Presidential election becuse the circumstances have changed. Some of these circumstances include more state governors supporting Tinubu in 2027.

It can be observed from Scenarios 1 and 2 that Tinubu will eat so much into Northern votes if Obi is the ADC candidate in 2027 but he (Tinubu) will not be able to do that if Atiku is the candidate.

THREE HORSE RACE:
In the likely event that Obi contests on the platform of the LP, he will divide the votes as he did in the 2023 Presidential elections thus handing Tinubu victory on a platter of gold.

If Atiku is fielded by the ADC in 2027, he will secure 2/3 of the votes in 24 states and FCT as required by the 1999 constitution (as amended) to win the election.

A southern candidate cannot score 25% in 24 states to win the election as President Tinubu will win most of the Northern states to secure victory.

For Mr Peter Obi, the best route to his possible Presidency is to repeat the 2019 PDP ticket where he ran as VP to Atiku. After Atiku’s 8 years as President in 2031, it will be a fait accompli for Mr Obi to not only run for the Presidency but also win it. On the other hand, in the unlikely event that President Tinubu wins a second term, Mr Obi will probably have to wait for 12 years -2035- i.e 4 years of Tinubu and 8 years of a Northern candidate in 2035 (not through rotational Presidency though) before he could possibly have another shot at the Presidency.

The ruling APC will do anything to help Obi get the ADC ticket because it means the 2027 Presidential election will be a walk-over for President Tinubu if Obi gets the ADC ticket. In fact, President Tinubu and the APC will be happy to strike a deal with Obi for 2027. They could even promise Obi that they will handover power to him in 2031.