30/11/2025
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SABAH STATE ELECTION 2025 — RESULTS, CONTEXT, AND ANALYSIS
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The 2025 Sabah State election was held on 29 November 2025, with all 73 state‑assembly seats contested. Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) emerged as the largest bloc, winning 29 seats, while Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan) secured 25 seats.
Other parties and independent candidates shared the remaining seats, with Barisan Nasional taking six seats, UPKO three, STAR Sabah two, KDM one, Perikatan Nasional one, Pakatan Harapan one, and independents five.
The election produced no outright majority, as 37 seats are required for a simple majority. GRS formed the state government with support from allied parties and independents, allowing Hajiji Noor to be sworn in as Chief Minister for a second term.
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OVERALL PERFORMANCE OF GRS AND WARISAN
GRS’s 29 seats represent a decline from its previous total of 38 in 2020, a loss of nine seats.
Many of these losses occurred in constituencies previously considered strongholds, suggesting that while GRS remains the largest bloc, voter preferences are increasingly fragmented.
Urban constituencies such as Sandakan and Tawau saw more competitive races, with independents and smaller parties gaining ground. GRS retained key seats in central Sabah, including Kota Belud, Beaufort, and Kota Marudu, which provided the foundation for it to remain the dominant coalition.
Warisan’s 25 seats represent a fall from 32 seats in 2020. Despite the reduction, the party managed to hold onto a mix of urban and rural constituencies.
In urban Sabah, Warisan retained Likas, Luyang, Kapayan, Tanjung Aru, and Api‑Api, maintaining its traditional base. Rural and semi-rural constituencies such as Sebatik, Bugaya, Sulabayan, and Merotai also remained under Warisan control, indicating that its support among local communities continues to be significant.
The analysis of seat-level changes shows that Warisan lost several constituencies that it had previously controlled, including some that shifted to GRS or independents.
These losses were partly due to localised dynamics, candidate popularity, and vote splitting among opposition parties. However, the party’s retention of 25 seats ensures that it remains the main opposition force in the state assembly, capable of influencing debates and coalition negotiations.
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ANALYSIS OF OPPOSITION PERFORMANCE
UMNO, under Barisan Nasional, won six seats, a sharp reduction from its previous tally of 13. This means it lost seven of its former constituencies, including areas traditionally aligned with the party such as Lahad Datu, Kunak, and Tongod.
The decline highlights UMNO’s waning influence in Sabah, particularly among younger and regionally conscious voters. Local parties such as STAR and PBS now command stronger loyalty, and the electorate increasingly favours coalitions that prioritise Sabah-specific issues over federal party agendas.
DAP contested eight constituencies and lost all eight, a total wipeout. Urban strongholds such as Likas, Luyang, Kapayan, Tanjung Aru, and Elopura fell to local parties or Warisan candidates.
PKR fared slightly better but still experienced major losses, winning only two of the 14 constituencies it contested. Both parties’ decline underscores the difficulty Peninsular-based coalitions face in translating national strength into state-level results in Sabah.
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SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESULTS
The 2025 Sabah State election confirms that local parties continue to dominate the political landscape. GRS, despite seat losses, remains the largest bloc and retains the mandate to govern, but it now faces a more fragmented assembly and the need to negotiate with allied parties and independents.
Warisan, although reduced in strength, remains a formidable opposition, holding onto key urban and rural constituencies.
These results highlight a broader trend: voters prioritise local issues such as autonomy, land rights, indigenous representation, infrastructure, and cost of living.
Federal coalitions like Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional have limited leverage without partnering with strong local parties.
Going forward, GRS must balance governance with coalition dynamics, while Warisan must strategise on reclaiming lost constituencies if it aims to challenge the government in the next election.
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RESULTS SUMMARY
In the 2025 election for the 73‑seat Sabah State Assembly, GRS won 29 seats, while Warisan won 25 seats. Other parties and independents made up the remaining seats.
Because 37 seats are required for a simple majority, neither bloc had majority on its own. GRS managed to form government by building alliances with other parties and independents, enabling Hajiji Noor to be sworn in again as Chief Minister.
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GRS — WHERE IT WON AND WHAT IT MEANS
GRS’s 29‑seat haul includes a broad mix of constituencies, especially in rural, semi‑urban and interior Sabah. Among the seats won by GRS are constituencies like Banggi, Pitas, Tanjung Kapor, Sulaman, Limbahau, Kawang, Pantai Manis, Klias, Kundasang, Nabawan, Sungai Manila, Apas, Kemabong, Telupid, Kiulu, Tanjung Keramat, Membakut, Sugut, Labuk, and others.
These wins show GRS continues to command support across Sabah’s hinterlands and smaller towns — areas where local issues, infrastructure needs, and perhaps tribal or rural‑community ties matter strongly.
Some of the victories represent seats previously held by other parties or coalitions, showing GRS’s ability to reclaim or retain ground. For example, Limbahau was reportedly won by GRS in 2025 even though it was held previously by Warisan.
GRS’s performance demonstrates that despite statewide volatility, a coalition with a distributed rural‑urban footprint and a range of component parties can still emerge as the largest bloc. Their broad base gives them bargaining power in coalition formation, even without a simple majority.
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WARISAN — ITS SEATS AND THE PATTERN
Warisan’s 25 seats reflect its continued strength in both urban and selected semi‑urban or rural constituencies. Among the seats it secured in 2025 are Likas, Luyang, Api‑Api, Tanjung Aru, Elopura, Bugaya, Sulabayan, Senallang, Bongawan, Merotai, Sebatik, Gum‑Gum, Sungai Sibuga, Sekong, Karamunting, Tanjong Papat, among others.
In urban‑centered seats such as Likas, Luyang and Api‑Api, Warisan’s wins suggest the party retains appeal among city and town dwellers. That base likely includes voters focused on urban issues: housing, employment, education, and multicultural communities.
Warisan also held onto more remote or outer‑zone constituencies like Sebatik, Merotai and Bugaya. That indicates it still maintains grassroots support among local communities outside major urban hubs, which helps keep it relevant as the main opposition force in the assembly.
However, the fact it won 25 seats — fewer than some earlier periods — shows its support has shrunk somewhat. Some constituencies it previously held were lost to GRS or other parties/independents. For instance, as noted above, Warisan lost Limbahau, which went to GRS.
Thus, while Warisan remains a significant force, its capacity to dominate is more limited, requiring sharper strategic decisions to reclaim lost ground or maintain influence.
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WHAT THE SEAT‑LEVEL SHIFTS SUGGEST
• The strong performance of GRS in rural, semi‑urban, and inland seats indicates that local‑coalition, grassroots‑oriented politics still resonate strongly in Sabah. GRS’s distributed wins help it remain the largest bloc despite competition.
• Warisan’s hold in urban and select rural constituencies shows it still represents a key political alternative for many Sabah voters, especially in areas where its messaging and identity appeal.
• The shifts — including constituencies switching hands from Warisan (or others) to GRS — suggest voters are fluid, responsive to changing local dynamics, candidate selection, and party strategies rather than fixed loyalties.
• Given no party had a majority, the post‑election alliances and coalitions matter. GRS’s ability to build coalitions with smaller parties or independents is therefore as important as seat count.
• For Warisan: retaining 25 seats keeps it as the main opposition. But to challenge for government next time, it would need to rebuild lost ground — possibly by expanding beyond traditional strongholds, re‑engaging in constituencies lost this round, or building broader coalitions.
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LIMITATIONS OF PUBLIC DATA
Because public summaries and media reports list only which seats were won — not always a full history of who held them before 2025 across all 73 constituencies — some seat‑by‑seat comparisons are approximate.
For many constituencies, especially minor or rural ones, detailed public archives of 2020 vs 2025 seat holders are incomplete or scattered. This complicates establishing a full “before‑and‑after” narrative for every seat.
Therefore this narrative focuses on clearly documented wins for 2025 and the observable shifts, rather than speculative or uncertain seat‑changes.
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MAJOR BATTLEGROUND SEATS — 2025 SABAH ELECTION
Limbahau
Previously held by Warisan, Limbahau flipped to GRS in 2025. This seat covers semi-rural areas with mixed communities. Analysts suggest the flip was influenced by strong local campaigning by the GRS candidate, who had deeper connections with community leaders and better outreach on infrastructure projects and rural development promises.
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Sandakan
Traditionally competitive, this urban seat switched to GRS from Warisan. Factors likely include local dissatisfaction with municipal services, GRS’s focused messaging on urban development, and effective mobilisation of younger voters who prioritised employment and living costs.
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Tawau
Tawau shifted from Warisan to GRS in 2025. The flip appears to reflect both national coalition influence and candidate reputation. The GRS candidate had long-standing ties in the constituency, giving voters confidence in continuity of representation. Local issues such as port development, transport, and security also played a role.
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Keningau
Formerly a Warisan stronghold, this seat went to GRS. Analysts point to the influence of local party alliances, the appeal of a GRS candidate with a strong rural and agricultural background, and Warisan’s weaker campaign presence in certain outlying villages.
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Lahad Datu
Previously aligned with UMNO/BN, Lahad Datu switched to GRS. The change indicates voters’ preference for a coalition focused on local Sabah governance rather than Peninsular-based parties. Infrastructure, disaster response, and indigenous land rights were cited as key voter concerns.
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Kunak
Kunak also moved from UMNO to GRS. Analysts suggest this reflects UMNO’s declining influence in East Malaysia, compounded by internal party factional issues and GRS’s more visible presence on local development projects.
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Tongod
Tongod shifted from UMNO to a local GRS-aligned candidate. The swing highlights the importance of community engagement and promises to address rural connectivity, education, and healthcare access — areas where voters felt previous representation was insufficient.
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Lahad Datu, Kunak, and Tongod collectively show a pattern: constituencies previously held by federal-based parties are increasingly favouring local coalitions that promise more direct attention to state-specific issues and infrastructure.
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OBSERVATIONS FROM BATTLEGROUND SEATS
The 2025 battleground flips suggest several consistent themes:
1. Local candidate credibility matters more than party brand. Many flips occurred where the winning candidate had stronger ties to the community or better visibility in local projects.
2. Infrastructure and service delivery are key voter priorities. Constituencies that experienced neglect or slower development were more likely to switch to a party promising tangible improvements.
3. Shift away from federal-centric parties. Seats previously held by UMNO or other Peninsular-based parties increasingly preferred local or state-focused coalitions like GRS.
4. Urban vs rural dynamics. Urban battlegrounds such as Sandakan responded to cost-of-living and employment messaging, while rural flips like Limbahau and Tongod were driven by promises on infrastructure, connectivity, and local leadership.
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