17/11/2025
CONGRESS FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (CDC)
Office of the National Chairman
Temporary National Headquarters
Plumkor, Sinkor, Monrovia
Republic of Liberia
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 17, 2025
CDC RESPONDS TO GOL FY2026 DRAFT BUDGET
Monrovia, Liberia: The Coalition for Democratic Change (CDC) calls on the Speaker of the House of Representatives, all members of the Legislature, and the Liberian people to act decisively in defense of fiscal prudence and economic stability.
After rigorous review of the Draft FY2026 National Budget, we conclude that the proposed US$1.211 billion envelope is excessively ambitious, built on speculative revenues and non-recurring windfalls, and exposes Liberia to serious fiscal and implementation risks.
We therefore demand that the budget be returned to the President of Liberia for immediate revision, anchored on confirmed core revenues and credible financing assumptions.
KEY FINDINGS & ANALYSES
1. Fragile Resource Envelope
Excluding US$200 million contingent revenue from AML Signature Bonus and Asset Recovery, the estimated Core Domestic is US$940million. This represents an addition of US$135million to the FY2025 Domestic Revenue of US$804. Even though this is ambitious, given the anticipated underperformance of the FY2025 Non-tax revenue by US$6 million (US$146m VS US$140m estimated collection). However, the US$940million projection could still be achieved through smart and aggressive tax administration strategies. The fragility and risk to full collection of the entire Draft FY2026 is mainly anticipated in the contingent revenue, inclusive of the AML US$200 million signature bonus.
2. Significant Risk to Ex*****on of Public Sector Investment Plan (PSIP)
Ex*****on of the US$281 million in PSIP projection largely depends on the realization of US$200 million from the AML signature bonus. Under the circumstances, uncertainty remains very high to receive funding from AML, thus rendering the entire FY2026 PSIP as just colorful projects waiting to fail in ex*****on. Secondly, most of the projected PSIPs are not projected in terms of designs, procurement, and other ex*****onal modalities. So, submitting a budget that hastily allocates a one-time payment of over US$200million to “UNREADY PROJECTS AND PROGRAMS” is ignorance to achieving value for money for both current and future generations.
3. Alarming and Growing Wage Bill without Incremental Benefits to Civil Servants
Even though the Draft FY2026 Wage bill is US$329million, the true wage cost is estimated at US$352million when over US$26 million in a new wage line called “OTHER COMPENSATION” is added. This aggregate US$352m wage amount represents about 37.8 percent of the Core Domestic Revenue, excluding contingent revenue and external resources. This increase to the wage bill is not only excessive but is significantly troubling, since IT DOES NOT reflect increases in the salary of the civil servants, especially those civil servants who are undeservingly earning the lowest of their standardized pay amount, especially nurses, midwives, teachers, security personnel for whom, over US$5 million allocation was made in the draft 2024 budget by the CDC administration before exiting power. In the interest of public transparency and accountability, the Executive needs to disaggregate the US$26million “OTHER COMPENSATION” to show the beneficiary by professional positions and by spending agency. Instead of hiding this under goods and services, it is important to reclassify it under the compensation category to reflect the actual wage bill of the government to be monitored by the government and the IMF under the current ECF program.
4. Pursue Debt Servicing with Transparency and Accountability
The budget proposes a US$230 million total debt service, inclusive of a new US$55 million interest line and increases in domestic liabilities. This amount represents an additional US$70million to the FY2025 debt service allocation. Sourcing this additional 70million from the incremental US$125 million to Core Domestic Revenue, as was done under the previous government, is laudable and shows Liberia’s respect for maintaining its integrity in the domestic and international financial markets. However, we urge that all debts, interests, and charges contained in the US$230 million projection are consistent with the General Auditing Commission’s domestic debt audit.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR LIBERIANS?
If contingent and other components of core revenues are not realized as expected, the government will face midyear shortfalls, resulting in stalled implementation of PSIP projects and programs; roads, energy expansion, hospital rehabilitation, and teacher-training programs would all be at risk-forcing compulsory emergency recasts. This would further undermine Donor confidence, ultimately reversing Liberia’s fragile gains in fiscal credibility and reform momentum. Avoiding all these will require prudent exercise of conservatism and accuracy in revenue projections and restricting contingency revenue to adopting in-year supplementary when contingent revenue and excessive revenue generation are achieved.
CDC DEMANDS AND POLICY ACTIONS
1. Return the FY2026 Draft Budget to the Executive for immediate conservative recast.
2. Exclude all speculative and contingent revenues from the baseline
This means that only revenues that are certain and legally guaranteed (like taxes, customs duties, loans, or confirmed grants) should be included in the main budget forecast. Any revenue that depends on uncertain future events (e.g., possible donor disbursements, future mining agreements, or loans not yet approved) should be left out of the baseline projection.
Why it’s important:
Including speculative revenues can make the budget unrealistic, leading to deficits, unpaid bills, or borrowing when those funds fail to materialize. Excluding speculative income ensures the government spends only what it has or can reliably collect.
This promotes realistic budgeting, reduces budget shortfalls and arrears, and builds credibility with donors and investors.
3. Appropriate contingent revenue (AML US$200 million) only through supplementary budgets after legal receipts and certification
This recommendation means that such funds should not be allocated immediately. Instead, they should be formally added to the budget later through a supplementary appropriation law after the fund is received and legally confirmed. There should be no rush to spend these monies if the country and the Government agree not to use such windfalls for recurrent expenditure. Today, Liberia has the Bomi range of mountains, which have been exhausted, and yet Bomi and the surrounding area continue to lie in abject poverty. Liberians today are asking what became of the resources of this place. Similar questions will face this generation from future generations if significant one-off resources received from concessions are not properly planned and executed. We argue that the best planning is not to use these resources in recurrent expenditure but to identify national projects of long-term economic consequence for the future of the country. In short, there should be no rush to spend the $200 million windfall if we agree it is not going toward recurrent expenditure.
4. Ring-fence one-off inflows exclusively for capital investment, not recurrent spending
One-off inflows are non-recurring revenues, such as a signature bonus or a one-time grant. Ring-fencing means restricting their use in this case, only for capital projects (like roads, schools, hospitals), not for recurrent costs (like salaries, fuel, or rent). Using one-time money to fund ongoing expenses creates future fiscal problems because those revenues won’t repeat annually, but the expenses will. This ensures sustainable fiscal management and improves public infrastructure.
5. Release a PSIP readiness report within 30 days showing project costs, sources, and timelines
PSIP stands for Public Sector Investment Program, which lists government capital projects (roads, hospitals, schools, etc.). A readiness report means a document showing each project’s cost estimate, financing source, implementation timeline, and readiness level. This is important because Liberia has struggled with unfinished or poorly planned capital projects. This ensures that projects in the budget are realistic, funded, and ready to start, not just politically motivated items. It also ensures value for money, avoids white elephant projects, and promotes efficient implementation and donor confidence.
6. Commission an independent debt sustainability and fiscal risk assessment within 45 days
This recommendation calls for the government to hire or empower an independent body (such as an international financial consultant or audit firm) to conduct a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis (DSA). The assessment would examine Liberia’s current debt levels, repayment capacity, borrowing risks, and exposure to contingent liabilities (like state-owned enterprises’ debts or guarantees). This ensures the government is not over-borrowing or accumulating unsustainable debt, builds investor and donor confidence, informs responsible budgeting, helps shape realistic borrowing limits and expenditure priorities, and helps prevent a potential debt crisis that could destabilize the economy or force painful austerity measures later.
7. Increase transparency on compensation and link payroll growth to verified revenues
This calls for the government to publish detailed information on salaries, allowances, and benefits across ministries and agencies, and to ensure that any increase in the public sector wage bill is tied to actual, verifiable growth in government revenues. This promotes accountability and transparency, most especially when the government wage bill is substantially increasing without an increase in the take-home pay for nurses, teachers, and the security sector. In the FY2024 draft budget that was submitted by the outgoing CDC administration as a matter of law, an amount of US$5 million was allocated specifically to address salary disparities in these sectors but was removed by the Rescue Government when the budget was withdrawn to be framed around the Rescue agenda. It also ensures that the government does not commit to wage hikes it cannot afford.
8. Accelerate LRA reforms and publish quarterly progress reports tied to conditional disbursements
This recommendation urges the government to speed up ongoing reforms at the Liberia Revenue Authority (LRA), the body responsible for collecting taxes and customs revenues, and to publish quarterly updates on the progress of these reforms. Furthermore, it suggests that budget disbursements (fund releases) to ministries and agencies be made conditional on meeting these reform milestones. This strengthens domestic revenue mobilization, enhances public trust, reduces donor dependency, and links disbursements to reform progress by ministries.
A BUDGET BUILT ON SAND
The FY2026 budget contains some fantasy revenue projections propelling it to US$1.211 billion - a 37.5% leap unsupported by real growth. With uncollected FY2025 revenues still significantly high, donor inflows lagging, the projected 2026 numbers in some areas seem inflated and unattainable. Liberia cannot build a future on promises of windfall prosperity.
This is not a rescue plan, but a risky plan. It pays salaries but cannot create jobs, reduce food prices, or restore investor confidence. It rescues politicians, not the people.
CONCLUSION
Passing a budget built on sand is not patriotism; it is peril. The CDC Legislative Caucus stands ready to work with the Executive, civil society, and international partners to produce a credible, transparent, and implementable budget grounded in revenues we truly control.
Return the budget. Reframe it. Rebuild Liberia on solid ground.
Prepared by: CDC Budget Review Committee
Signed: ____________________
Janga A. Kowo (Atty.)
National Chairman
Congress for Democratic Change (CDC)
